IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact du Commerce bilatéral Intra-Zone dans la zone UEMOA et CEMAC: Approche par les VAR Structurels


  • Dramani, Latif
  • Laye, Oumy


ABSTRACT In this article, we empirically try to answer the second hypothesis on the theory of the ZMO developed by Mc Kinnon (1963), while working on a sample of the countries of the franc zone. We found on the assets of the gravity models to put in evidence the existing monetary union impact on the bilateral trade flux. In order to measure the effects of the monetary union on the intra zone trade, we call on, a structural VAR, to which is associated the method of space state model assessment with the aim of distinguishing the impact of an economic policy shock in a group of country in open economy. Our sample is constituted in this particular case of the 12 countries of the zone franc; seven countries of the UEMOA zone and five countries of the CEMAC zone. The originality of the approach is based on the fact that we tempt an endogeneisation of the flux of bilateral trade of every country in this analysis. The results of our investigations show a sensitive reduction of the effects borders, an improvement of the institutional effects as well as the effects bound to the distance on the flux of the intra zone trade. On the other hand, the survey by structural VAR and state measure models shows a relative symmetry of shocks observed in the real shocks of demand while the shocks of price and supply rather present an asymmetric character. With the importance of the real demand shocks, in our study we globally notice that some efforts must be made to vary the structure of the economy of the franc countries, currently based on the food-processing industries, which are very sensitive to the climatic risks; in order to hope to have the sustained growth rates which will allow to reach the objectives of poverty reduction by 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Dramani, Latif & Laye, Oumy, 2007. "Impact du Commerce bilatéral Intra-Zone dans la zone UEMOA et CEMAC: Approche par les VAR Structurels," MPRA Paper 2088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2088

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    2. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    3. Bamba, Lambert N'galadjo, 2004. "Analyse du Processus de Convergence Dans la Zone UEMOA," WIDER Working Paper Series 018, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Structural VAR model; optimal Currency area; symmetry of the shocks; Kalman filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.