Impact du Commerce bilatéral Intra-Zone dans la zone UEMOA et CEMAC: Approche par les VAR Structurels
ABSTRACT In this article, we empirically try to answer the second hypothesis on the theory of the ZMO developed by Mc Kinnon (1963), while working on a sample of the countries of the franc zone. We found on the assets of the gravity models to put in evidence the existing monetary union impact on the bilateral trade flux. In order to measure the effects of the monetary union on the intra zone trade, we call on, a structural VAR, to which is associated the method of space state model assessment with the aim of distinguishing the impact of an economic policy shock in a group of country in open economy. Our sample is constituted in this particular case of the 12 countries of the zone franc; seven countries of the UEMOA zone and five countries of the CEMAC zone. The originality of the approach is based on the fact that we tempt an endogeneisation of the flux of bilateral trade of every country in this analysis. The results of our investigations show a sensitive reduction of the effects borders, an improvement of the institutional effects as well as the effects bound to the distance on the flux of the intra zone trade. On the other hand, the survey by structural VAR and state measure models shows a relative symmetry of shocks observed in the real shocks of demand while the shocks of price and supply rather present an asymmetric character. With the importance of the real demand shocks, in our study we globally notice that some efforts must be made to vary the structure of the economy of the franc countries, currently based on the food-processing industries, which are very sensitive to the climatic risks; in order to hope to have the sustained growth rates which will allow to reach the objectives of poverty reduction by 2015.
|Date of creation:||08 Mar 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996.
"On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation,"
9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evenett, S. J. & Keller, W., 1994. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Working papers 9713, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Bamba, Lambert N'galadjo, 2004. "Analyse du Processus de Convergence Dans la Zone UEMOA," WIDER Working Paper Series 018, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.