Efectos no lineales del cambio climático y restricción de divisas en la inflación de alimentos[Non-linear effects of climate change and foreign exchange constraints on food inflation]

The present study analyzes the nonlinear effects of climate change and external constraints on food inflation in Bolivia, integrating astronomical (solar cycle), climatic (PDO, ENSO), and macroeconomic (foreign exchange scarcity index) factors using a quantile-conditional PVAR model. The findings indicate that, under conditions of elevated solar irradiance, the influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and dollar scarcity on food prices are substantially amplified, resulting in increases reaching up to 10 percentage points. The interplay among extreme climate shocks (El Niño, La Niña), production stress, and exchange rate restrictions gives rise to a composite vulnerability architecture that transcends linear analytical frameworks. It is recommended that climate and astronomical variables be integrated into forecasting models, that food reserves be strengthened, that indexed climate insurance be developed, and that differential exchange rate policies be adopted for strategic sectors. The study offers pertinent empirical and methodological evidence to anticipate risk scenarios and design more resilient multi-scale responses.