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Towards a General Complex Systems Model of Economic Sanctions with Some Results Outlining Consequences of Sanctions on the Russian Economy and the World

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  • Khan, Haider

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to present a complex nonlinear modelling approach to analyzing mixed capitalist economic systems. An application of a more elaborate version of this model is to explore the consequences of sanctions on the Russian economy and evaluate the model’s predictive successes or failures. Furthermore, the formal expanded nonlinear model presented in the appendix may be seen as an initial step to put the analysis of economic sanctions within a formal complex socio-economic systems framework. The results obtained from this structural complex multisectoral model so far seem fairly accurate in terms of agreement with measured values of observable economic variables. The political consequences are uncertain and are to be explored separately in a companion paper and ultimately in a book length treatment. Methodologically, the paper also presents the case for using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based models for understanding problems of analyzing sanctions in an economywide context. Linear as well as Nonlinear models are presented in the appendix. The nonlinear modelling approach might prove to be especially relevant for studying the properties of multiple equilibria and complex dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Haider, 2023. "Towards a General Complex Systems Model of Economic Sanctions with Some Results Outlining Consequences of Sanctions on the Russian Economy and the World," MPRA Paper 116806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116806
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Navin A. Bapat & Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi & T. Clifton Morgan, 2013. "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 79-98, January.
    2. David, Paul A. & Hall, Bronwyn H. & Toole, Andrew A., 2000. "Is public R&D a complement or substitute for private R&D? A review of the econometric evidence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 497-529, April.
    3. Xiao Jiang & Haider A. Khan, 2017. "Structural Change and Energy Use in China: A SAM-based CGE Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 405-424, November.
    4. Haider Khan, 2002. "Innovation and Growth: A Schumpeterian Model of Innovation Applied to Taiwan," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 289-306.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Weber, Patrick M. & Schneider, Gerald, 2020. "How many hands to make sanctions work? Comparing EU and US sanctioning efforts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Goel, Rajeev K. & Hsieh, Edward W.T., 2006. "On coordinating environmental policy and technology policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 897-908, November.
    8. Haider A. Khan, 1997. "Technology, Energy and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1238.
    9. Haider A. Khan, 2002. "Innovation and Growth: A Schumpeterian Model of Innovation," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-150, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Haider A. Khan, 1998. "Technology, Development and Democracy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1247.
    11. David, Paul A. & Hall, Bronwyn H. & Toole, Andrew A., 2000. "Is public R&D a complement or substitute for private R&D? A review of the econometric evidence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 497-529, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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