IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110700.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Discerning the effect of international stock markets before and after the subprime crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Rahmali, Atiqah
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

The recent financial crisis spread to markets worldwide. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to test the interdependencies of capital markets selected which are DJIA, NIKKEI, FTSE, SSE and IBEX, before and after the Global Financial Crisis. Furthermore, it also identifies which index influences or affects FTSE, if any. The study is important because it attempts to test whether the rise in FTSE index is due to the other indices or speculative reasons. Using data from Jan 2000 to June 2007as the first period (before the crisis) and the period from July 2007 onward as the second period (after the crisis), we examine if the FTSE index is affected by the past behaviour of the DJIA, NIKKEI (JAP), Shanghai (CHSA) and IBEX indices. The method of estimation is the standard Time series Techniques. This study found that during the first period (before the crisis) Shanghai Stock Index and IBEX impacted FTSE performance, however, during the second period (after the crisis) Shanghai Stock index and NIKKEI impacted FTSE performance. Contrary to the popular belief, the results did not indicate that the American DJIA was influential in affecting the other stock markets. Thus, we suggest that investors should focus on emerging market performance when it comes to the investment selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahmali, Atiqah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Discerning the effect of international stock markets before and after the subprime crisis," MPRA Paper 110700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110700
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110700/1/MPRA_paper_110700.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Wong, Ying-Chiu & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2008. "International linkages of the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 601-621, December.
    2. Baur, Dirk & Jung, Robert C., 2006. "Return and volatility linkages between the US and the German stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 598-613, June.
    3. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2001. "Long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-587, August.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Gupta, Manoj, 1990. "The Intertemporal Relation between the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1297-1306, September.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Mansur Masih & Ali Al-Elg & Haider Madani, 2009. "Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1691-1699.
    8. Hassan, M. Kabir & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1996. "Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 387-405.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Phengpis, Chanwit & Apilado, Vince P., 2004. "Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    2. Mohamed, Hazik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock market comovement among the ASEAN-5 : a causality analysis," MPRA Paper 98781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Srinivasan Palamalai & Kalaivani M. & Christopher Devakumar, 2013. "Stock Market Linkages in Emerging Asia-Pacific Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 3(4), pages 21582440135, November.
    4. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    5. Zakaria, Khairuddin & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Impact of various islamic equity markets on sharia (islamic) compliant equity invesments in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 103799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ariff, Azwar & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Role of global financial crisis in causing dynamic connectedness of Asian equity markets," MPRA Paper 112555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chen, Yanhua & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2022. "Short-run disequilibrium adjustment and long-run equilibrium in the international stock markets: A network-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Wang, Lihong, 2014. "Who moves East Asian stock markets? The role of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 182-203.
    9. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
    10. Daqane, Mohamed Qalib & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Is islamic stock market affected by interest rates ? Malaysia as a case study," MPRA Paper 103784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Siv Heng Taing & Andrew C. Worthington, 2002. "Comovements among European equity sectors: Selected evidence from the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financial, industrial and materials sectors," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 116, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    12. Gebka, Bartosz, 2006. "Leaders and Laggards: International Evidence on Spillovers in Returns, Variance, and Trading Volume," Working Paper Series 2006,1, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    13. Phengpis, Chanwit & Swanson, Peggy E., 2004. "Increasing input information and realistically measuring potential diversification gains from international portfolio investments," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-217, August.
    14. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Abdul Karim, Bakri, 2008. "Stock market integration: Malaysia and its major trading partners," MPRA Paper 26976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2009.
    15. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    16. Yanhua Chen & Rosario N Mantegna & Athanasios A Pantelous & Konstantin M Zuev, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-40, March.
    17. Kalthum, Ummi & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The lead-lag relationship between PPI, CPI and oil price: Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 108011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Takashi Matsuki, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear comovement in Southeast Asian local currency bond markets: a stepwise multiple testing approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 591-619, September.
    19. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    20. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Effects of international stock markets; subprime crisis; VECM; VDC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.