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Benchmarking Machine Learning Models for ESG Prediction in South Korea Using News-Derived Time Series

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  • yunwoo, Kim
  • Hwang, Junhyuk

Abstract

Existing ESG ratings have limitations like disclosure delays, inconsistencies, and uneven coverage, particularly in non-English markets. This paper addresses these issues by establishing the first machine learning benchmark for ESG prediction in the Korean market using news-derived time-series features. A standardized dataset of 278 Korean firms was constructed, and monthly sentiment and ESG-relevance features were generated from news using Korean-specific language models. A mask-aware CNN explicitly handles missing data by distinguishing observed months from imputed ones. The model achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 17.9, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 22.0, an 𝑅2 of 0.12, and a Spearman’s 𝜌 of 0.38, demonstrating that temporal modeling and explicit handling of missing data are crucial for improving predictive accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • yunwoo, Kim & Hwang, Junhyuk, 2025. "Benchmarking Machine Learning Models for ESG Prediction in South Korea Using News-Derived Time Series," SocArXiv v2738_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:v2738_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/v2738_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gunnar Friede & Timo Busch & Alexander Bassen, 2015. "ESG and financial performance: aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 210-233, October.
    2. Valeria D’Amato & Rita D’Ecclesia & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "ESG score prediction through random forest algorithm," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 347-373, June.
    3. Florian Berg & Julian F Kölbel & Roberto Rigobon, 2022. "Aggregate Confusion: The Divergence of ESG Ratings [Corporate social responsibility and firm risk: theory and empirical evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1315-1344.
    4. Gillan, Stuart L. & Koch, Andrew & Starks, Laura T., 2021. "Firms and social responsibility: A review of ESG and CSR research in corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Tanja Aue & Adam Jatowt & Michael Farber, 2022. "Predicting Companies' ESG Ratings from News Articles Using Multivariate Timeseries Analysis," Papers 2212.11765, arXiv.org.
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