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Road Violence and Perceptions of Safety among Pedestrians and Cyclists

Author

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  • Pina-Sánchez, Jose

    (University of Leeds)

  • Trinidad, Alexander

    (University of Cologne)

  • Loader, Ian

Abstract

This registered report investigates whether involvement in road traffic collisions meaningfully shapes pedestrians’ and cyclists’ perceptions of safety. Drawing on criminological insights - particularly the fear‑victimisation paradox - the study explores the common policy assumption that reducing collisions alone improves subjective safety. Using ESRA2 survey data from 24 European countries, the analysis estimates both average and conditional treatment effects of collision experience on perceived safety, accounting for vulnerability (age, gender) and exposure (active travel frequency). The study employs equivalence testing and counterfactual modelling to assess whether victims’ perceptions differ from non‑victims’. Findings will clarify whether collision reduction strategies are sufficient to encourage active travel or whether broader interventions addressing vulnerability and environmental cues are required.

Suggested Citation

  • Pina-Sánchez, Jose & Trinidad, Alexander & Loader, Ian, 2026. "Road Violence and Perceptions of Safety among Pedestrians and Cyclists," SocArXiv 4dnrc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:4dnrc_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/4dnrc_v1
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