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Arguing for a Negligible Effect

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  • Carlisle Rainey

Abstract

Political scientists often theorize that an explanatory variable should have “no effect” and support this claim by demonstrating that its coefficient's estimate is not statistically significant. This empirical argument is quite weak, but I introduce applied researchers to simple, powerful tools that can strengthen their arguments for this hypothesis. With several supporting examples, I illustrate that researchers can use 90% confidence intervals to argue against meaningful effects and provide persuasive evidence for their hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlisle Rainey, 2014. "Arguing for a Negligible Effect," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(4), pages 1083-1091, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:58:y:2014:i:4:p:1083-1091
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12102
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    Cited by:

    1. Greg Goelzhauser, 2024. "Constitutional accountability for police shootings," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 92-108, March.
    2. McCaskey Kelly & Rainey Carlisle, 2015. "Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1-2), pages 77-96, December.
    3. Mari, Gabriele & Keizer, Renske, 2021. "Do high-income households 'label' family cash transfers? Evidence on family expenditures from Australia," SocArXiv ucyzb, Center for Open Science.
    4. Kyle Rozema, 2021. "Does the Bar Exam Protect the Public?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 801-848, December.
    5. Robert A. Jackson & Matthew Pietryka, 2022. "The influence of becoming a parent on political participation in the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(3), pages 565-580, May.
    6. Manuel Hoffmann & Roberto Mosquera & Adrian Chadi, 2019. "Vaccines at Work," TWI Research Paper Series 116, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    7. Gregory Eady & Tom Paskhalis & Jan Zilinsky & Richard Bonneau & Jonathan Nagler & Joshua A. Tucker, 2023. "Exposure to the Russian Internet Research Agency foreign influence campaign on Twitter in the 2016 US election and its relationship to attitudes and voting behavior," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Agustín Goenaga & Oriol Sabaté & Jan Teorell, 2023. "The state does not live by warfare alone: War and revenue in the long nineteenth century," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 393-418, April.
    9. Kevin L. Cope & Charles Crabtree, 2020. "A Nationalist Backlash to International Refugee Law: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 752-788, December.
    10. Adam S. Chilton & Mila Versteeg, 2015. "The Failure of Constitutional Torture Prohibitions," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 417-452.
    11. Debra Javeline & Tracy Kijewski-Correa & Angela Chesler, 2019. "Does it matter if you “believe” in climate change? Not for coastal home vulnerability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 511-532, August.
    12. Jürges, Hendrik & Makles, Anna M. & Naghavi, Arash & Schneider, Kerstin, 2022. "Melting pot kindergarten: The effect of linguistic diversity in early education," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Agnese Vitali & Romina Fraboni, 2022. "Pooling of Wealth in Marriage: The Role of Premarital Cohabitation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(4), pages 721-754, October.
    14. Kim, Nam Kyu, 2023. "Regime legitimation strategies and competition laws in autocracies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Paccagnella, Omar & Pongiglione, Benedetta, 2022. "Depression deterioration of older adults during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    16. Gertz, Geoffrey & Jandhyala, Srividya & Poulsen, Lauge N. Skovgaard, 2018. "Legalization, diplomacy, and development: Do investment treaties de-politicize investment disputes?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 239-252.
    17. Patrick E. Shea & Charlotte Christian, 2017. "The Impact of Women Legislators on Humanitarian Military Interventions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(10), pages 2043-2073, November.
    18. Matthew Hauenstein, 2020. "The conditional effect of audiences on credibility," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 422-436, May.

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