Breaking the Stalemate: Europeans’ Preferences to Expand, Cut, or Sustain Support to Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point for European security. European countries have provided significant military and financial aid to Ukraine so far, but public support for such measures is a critical factor to sustain this assistance. In this article, we focus on two key aspects of public opinion on the war in Ukraine: whether Europeans want to increase, decrease, or maintain current support levels, and what factors shape these attitudes. Using survey data from six countries – Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland – fielded in June 2024, we find little evidence of war fatigue among the European public two years after the outbreak of the war. Most respondents express satisfaction with current aid levels, and a narrow majority in most countries even supports increasing aid, while around 10 percent firmly opposes any support. Importantly, differences in desired change seem unrelated to whether countries have been relatively large or small aid donors so far. Furthermore, support for aiding Ukraine is shaped by economic evaluations and national identity. Citizens who negatively assess the domestic economy are less supportive of aid, whereas personal financial concerns do not have such an impact. In addition, citizens who identify along national versus European lines are also more likely to oppose aiding Ukraine. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the challenges they pose for sustaining public support crucial to European security.