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Analysis of PISA 2006 Preferred Items Ranking Using the Percent-Correct Method

  • Ray Adams
  • Alla Berezner
  • Maciej Jakubowski

This paper uses an approximate average percent-correct methodology to compare the ranks that would be obtained for PISA 2006 countries if the rankings had been derived from items judged by each country to be of highest priority for inclusion. The results reported show a remarkable consistency in the country rank orderings across different sets of countries’ preferred items when comparing with the rank reported in the PISA 2006 initial report (OECD, 2007). On average, only few countries systemically go up or down in their ranking position. As these countries are in a group of moderate performers with very comparable outcomes, these shifts in the ranking would probably be associated with minor changes in mean performance on the final PISA scale. The analysis suggests that PISA rankings are noticeably stable thanks to the large enough pool of test items able to accommodate diverse preferences. The paper shows how important it is to base a choice of test items on a properly structured process which allows different experts and countries to equally contribute. The evidence presented demonstrates that in PISA, average rank positions of countries across different sets of preferred items are apparently stable and experts are not able to predict which items can elevate performance of their countries in the final test. Le présent document repose sur une méthodologie fondée sur la moyenne des pourcentages de réponses correctes. Il vise à déterminer le rang que les pays auraient obtenu à l’évaluation PISA 2006 si le classement avait été réalisé à partir des items considérés comme prioritaires par chaque pays. Sur les différents groupes d’items préférés des pays, les résultats montrent une cohérence remarquable avec le classement réel qui figure dans le rapport initial PISA 2006 (OCDE, 2007). En moyenne, peu de pays gagnent ou perdent des places systématiquement. Étant donné que ces pays font partie d’un groupe de niveau moyen avec des résultats très comparables, les décalages dans le classement s’accompagneraient probablement de changements mineurs dans la performance moyenne sur l’échelle finale PISA. L’analyse suggère que les classements PISA sont manifestement stables grâce à l’existence d’un vivier d’items de tests suffisamment important pour autoriser toutes les préférences. Ce document montre qu’il est important de fonder le choix des items de tests sur un processus bien structuré, ce qui permet aux pays et aux experts de contribuer de la même façon. Les observations présentées ici établissent que pour PISA, le classement des pays selon les différents groupes d’items de premier choix est apparemment stable et les experts ne peuvent pas prédire quels items pourraient gonfler la performance de leur pays dans les tests finals.

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Education Working Papers with number 46.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:oec:eduaab:46-en
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