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The Sharing of Macroeconomic Risk: Who Loses (and Gains) from Macroeconomic Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Rudiger Ahrend

    (OECD)

  • Jens Arnold

    (OECD)

  • Charlotte Moeser

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper addresses the often neglected question of how macroeconomic risk is shared across and within economies, and identifies reforms that could contribute towards achieving more desirable risksharing outcomes. For risk-sharing across countries, the paper discusses possibilities for international insurance as well as shock-spreading and risk-mitigating policies. Within countries, it assesses the possibilities for individuals to protect their wealth, labour and capital income against various forms of macroeconomic risk and discusses the desirable boundaries between private and government-sponsored risk-sharing institutions. The paper then presents new empirical and model-based evidence about how the short-term impact of selected macroeconomic shocks (including financial crises) is shared across different groups of agents, and analyses how such distributional effects are shaped by differences in institutions. For example, individuals on low incomes, and especially young people, seem in general to lose most from adverse macroeconomic shocks. Also, it appears that across countries two broad types of institutions can be identified that facilitate risk sharing between high and low income earners, namely “social protection” and “reallocation-facilitating” institutions. Based on countries’ reliance on these types of institutions, four broad “models” of risk sharing are identified across the OECD and the BRIICS. Le partage du risque macroéconomique : Les perdants (et gagnants) des chocs macroéconomiques L’article analyse comment les risques macroéconomiques sont répartis au niveau international et individuel. Il propose des réformes qui pourraient contribuer à une meilleure redistribution de ces risques. Premièrement, au niveau international, le papier analyse l’opportunité des dispositifs d’assurance ainsi que des politiques de partage et de réduction des risques macroéconomiques. Deuxièmement, au niveau individuel, l’article évalue comment les individus peuvent protéger leurs patrimoines et revenus du travail et du capital à l’encontre de différents chocs macroéconomiques. Il analyse les limites et rôles souhaitables des dispositifs privés et publics de répartition des risques. Enfin, l’article modélise les effets de court terme de certains chocs macroéconomiques – dont les crises financières – sur différents groupes d’individus et propose une nouvelle analyse empirique de l’impact des institutions sur la répartition des risques macroéconomiques. Les bas revenus, et en particulier les jeunes, semblent les groupes les plus affectés par les chocs macroéconomiques. Les institutions de protection sociale et elles favorisant les transitions apparaissent contribuer à la redistribution des risques entre niveau de revenus. Cette analyse permet d’identifier quatre grands modèles de répartition des risques parmi les pays de l’OCDE et du BRIICS.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Ahrend & Jens Arnold & Charlotte Moeser, 2011. "The Sharing of Macroeconomic Risk: Who Loses (and Gains) from Macroeconomic Shocks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 877, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:877-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kg8hw5467wd-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Stráský, 2016. "Priorities for completing the European Union's Single Market," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1315, OECD Publishing.
    2. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    3. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2014. "Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economic Policy Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
    4. Denisa Maria Sologon & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2011. "Shaping earnings instability: labour market policy and institutional factors," MERIT Working Papers 077, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Era Dabla-Norris & Giang Ho & Annette J Kyobe, 2016. "Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 16/15, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Distributive Effects of the Crisis and Austerity in Seven EU Countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/04, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    7. Pilar Poncela & Filippo Pericoli & Anna Manca & Filippo Michela Nardo, 2016. "Risk Sharing in Europe," JRC Working Papers JRC104621, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "How do policies influence GDP tail risks?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1339, OECD Publishing.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Ireland; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 12/265, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    assurance; chocs macroéconomiques; DSGE; financial crises; income; institutions; institutions; insurance; macroeconomic shock; modèle d’équilibre général à dynamique stochastique; redistribution; redistribution; revenus; risk sharing; répartition des risques; wealth;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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