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Long-Term Budgetary Implications of Tax-Favoured Retirement Plans

  • Pablo Antolín
  • Alain de Serres
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve

This paper provides estimates of the implicit fiscal assets as well as of the evolution over time of fiscal costs and revenues related to tax-favoured retirement saving regimes in 17 OECD countries, taking into account current and future contributions, asset accumulation and withdrawals, all of which will be strongly influenced by future demographic developments. The main results show that in the case where tax incentives are assumed to lead essentially to saving diversion rather than creation, the net budgetary cost of tax-favoured schemes would remain large, despite the sharp rise in revenues collected from withdrawals as population ages. The paper shows that this cost would significantly be reduced if tax-favoured schemes succeed in promoting additional private savings. It then explores a number of policy options to maximize the amount of additional saving ... Lmplications budgétaires à long terme des plans d'épargne retraite à traitement fiscal favorable Cette étude présente, pour 17 pays de l’OCDE, les résultats d’estimation des avoirs nets budgétaires ainsi que de l’évolution sur le temps des coûts et revenus fiscaux liés aux plans privés d’épargne retraite à traitement fiscal favorable. Les estimations prennent en compte les contributions, l’accumulation d’actifs et les prestations présentes et futures qui seront influencées par les changements démographiques à venir. Les principaux résultats suggèrent que dans l’hypothèse où les incitatifs fiscaux ont peu d’effet sur la creation nette d’épargne et conduisent plutôt à une réallocation de l’épargne existante, le coût budgétaire net des plans d’épargne retraite à traitement fiscal favorable demeurera élevé et ce, en dépit de la forte croissance des recettes fiscales anticipée, liée à l’augmentation importante du nombre de retraités par rapport au nombre de contributeurs. L’étude montre en outre que le coût budgétaire est sensiblement réduit dans l’hypothèse où ces plans ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 393.

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Date of creation: 24 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:393-en
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