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Will Basel II Affect International Capital Flows to Emerging Markets?

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  • Beatrice Weder
  • Michael Wedow

Abstract

This paper investigates the consequences of Basel II for international capital flows to emerging markets. The paper shows that the magnitude of effects critically depends on a number of assumptions, including: the mapping of risk weights to ratings, assumptions about required return on capital, assumptions about competition and diversion effects and the assumption that minimum capital requirements are binding constraints. The paper provides evidence on each of these assumptions and estimates their effect on interest margins and bank flows. Overall the results suggest that Basel II — taking into account the “Potential Modifications” of November 2001 — will have only a moderate impact on international capital flows ... Ce Document technique examine les conséquences des Accords de Bâle II sur les flux internationaux de capitaux vers les pays émergents. L’ampleur de ces effets dépend fortement d’un certain nombre d’hypothèses, en particulier sur les pondérations des risques choisies pour établir les notations, sur la rémunération du capital, sur la concurrence et les effets de diversion, ainsi que l’hypothèse selon laquelle les exigences de fonds propres minimales représentent une contrainte. Les auteurs mettent en évidence chacune de ces hypothèses et estiment leur impact sur l’intérêt marginal et les flux bancaires. Il en ressort que les Accords de Bâle II — y compris les « Modifications éventuelles » de novembre 2001 — n’auront qu’un impact modeste sur les flux de capitaux internationaux ...

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Weder & Michael Wedow, 2002. "Will Basel II Affect International Capital Flows to Emerging Markets?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 199, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:199-en
    DOI: 10.1787/731072600818
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    Cited by:

    1. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo & Villar Gómez, Leonardo, 2005. "Estabilidad macroeconómica real y la cuenta de capitales en Chile y Colombia," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1858.
    2. Liebig, Thilo & Porath, Daniel & Weder, Beatrice & Wedow, Michael, 2007. "Basel II and bank lending to emerging markets: Evidence from the German banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 401-418, February.
    3. Thierry Mayer, 2006. "Policy Coherence for Development : A Background paper on Foreign Direct Investment," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01065640, HAL.
    4. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2005. "Macroeconomía para el crecimiento y globalización financiera: cuatro temas estratégicos," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1855.
    5. Nachane, D M & Ray, Partha & Ghosh, Saibal, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord: A Primer with an Indian Focus," MPRA Paper 17397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stijn Claessens & Geoffrey R D Underhill & Xiaoke Zhang, 2006. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Governance: The Costs of Basle II for Poor Countries," WEF Working Papers 0015, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    8. -, 2005. "Crecimiento esquivo y volatilidad financiera," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1854 edited by Cepal.
    9. Javier Santiso, 2008. "Banking on Development. Private Financial Actors and Donors in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 34, OECD Publishing.
    10. Alicia García-Herrero & Sergio Gavilá, 2006. "Posible impacto de Basilea II en los países emergentes," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 103-124, Julio-sep.
    11. Gutiérrez López, Cristina & Abad González, Julio, 2014. "¿Permitían los estados financieros predecir los resultados de los tests de estrés de la banca española? Una aplicación del modelo logit," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-70.
    12. Figuet, Jean-Marc & Humblot, Thomas & Lahet, Delphine, 2015. "Cross-border banking claims on emerging countries: The Basel III Banking Reforms in a push and pull framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-310.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Zahler, Roberto, 2005. "Estabilidad macroeconómica e inversiones de los fondos de pensiones: el caso de Chile," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1857.
    15. Roman Kraeussl, "undated". "A Critique on the Proposed Use of External Sovereign Credit Ratings in Basel II," Working Papers 0315, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    16. Ocampo, José Antonio, 2005. "Los caminos para superar las frustraciones de crecimiento en América Latina," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1856.
    17. Liebig, Thilo & Porath, Daniel & di Mauro, Beatrice Weder & Wedow, Michael, 2004. "How will Basel II affect bank lending to emerging markets? An analysis based on German bank level data," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Griffith-Jones, Stephany, 2005. "Basilea II: su impacto en los mercados emergentes y su economía política," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1860.
    19. Stijn Claessens & Geoffrey R. D. Underhill & Xiaoke Zhang, 2008. "The Political Economy of Basle II: The Costs for Poor Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 313-344, March.
    20. Andrew Powell, 2004. "Implications of Basel II for Latin America," Business School Working Papers basel, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Liebig, Thilo & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Porath, Daniel & Wedow, Michael, 2005. "Basel II and Bank Lending to Emerging Markets: Micro Evidence from German Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 5163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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