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Recent G3 Current Account Imbalances: How Important are Structural Factors?

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  • Richard Clarida
  • Joe Prendergast

Abstract

This paper implements a novel empirical approach for estimating the importance of structural factors in explaining the recent behavior of G3 current account positions. Following the contribution of Sims (1982), we employ a tractable econometric framework that can be used to answer the following basic question: assuming that there is a stable underlying structure that links the current account with other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, world demand, and the real exchange rate, how important are the observed departures of these variables from their long run equilibrium levels in accounting for the observed adjustments in a country's current account? Our approach interprets the departure of the actual current account from this estimated structural component of the current account path as arising from a combination of cyclical and idiosyncratic factors. The cyclical influences on the current account are assumed to be captured by the deviations of the multilateral real exchange rate, home GDP growth, and global GDP growth from their respective long run averages.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Clarida & Joe Prendergast, 1999. "Recent G3 Current Account Imbalances: How Important are Structural Factors?," NBER Working Papers 6935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nason, James M & Rogers, John H, 2002. "Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 967-986, November.
    2. Lee, J. & Chinn, M.D., 1998. "The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies," Papers 97-98-17, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    3. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2006. "Structural and cyclical movements of the current account in Japan: An alternative measure," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 545-567, December.
    2. Shushanik Papanyan, 2010. "The transmission of shocks between Europe, Japan and the United States," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 54-70.
    3. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2010. "Fiscal stance, the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 276-290, November.

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