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The Effects of Widespread Online Education on Market Structure and Enrollment

Author

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  • Nano Barahona
  • Cauê Dobbin
  • Sebastián Otero

Abstract

We study the rapid expansion of Brazil's private online higher-education sector and its effects on market structure and college enrollment. Exploiting regional and field-specific variation in online education penetration, we find that online programs expand access for older students but divert younger students from higher-quality in-person programs. Greater competition lowers tuition prices but also reduces the supply of in-person degrees. Using an equilibrium model of college education, we show that in the absence of online programs, total enrollment would be 14 percent lower, while in-person enrollment would rise by 33 percent. On net, aggregate labor-market value added declines by 1.4 percent. Online education raises value added for older students, who benefit from increased access, but lowers it for younger students, who shift toward lower-return online options. Counterfactual policies that restrict online enrollment to older cohorts could increase value added for younger students without reducing gains for older cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nano Barahona & Cauê Dobbin & Sebastián Otero, 2025. "The Effects of Widespread Online Education on Market Structure and Enrollment," NBER Working Papers 34522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34522
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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