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Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: The Persistence of Performance, 1974-87

Author

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  • Darryll Hendricks
  • Jayendu Patel
  • Richard Zeckhauser

Abstract

The net returns of no-load mutual growth funds exhibit a hot-hands phenomenon during 1974-87. When performance is measured by Jensen's alpha, mutual funds that perform well in a one year evaluation period continue to generate superior performance in the following year. Underperformers also display short-run persistence. Hot hands persists in 1988 and 1989. The success of the hot hands strategy does not derive from selecting superior funds over the sample period. The timing component -- knowing when to pick which fund -- is significant. These results are robust to alternative equity portfolio benchmarks, such as those that account for firm-size effects and mean reversion in returns. Capitilizing on the hot hands phenomenon, an investor could have generated a significant, risk-adjusted excess return of 10% per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1990. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: The Persistence of Performance, 1974-87," NBER Working Papers 3389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3389
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3389.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119-119.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    3. Dybvig, Philip H & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. " The Analytics of Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 401-416, June.
    4. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1989. "A Mean-Reverting Walk Down Wall Street," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 189-202, Winter.
    5. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
    6. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
    7. Affleck-Graves, John & McDonald, Bill, 1989. " Nonnormalities and Tests of Asset Pricing Theories," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 889-908, September.
    8. Henriksson, Roy D, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 73-96, January.
    9. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
    10. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henrik Cronqvist, 2005. "Advertising and Portfolio Choice," CeRP Working Papers 44, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    2. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 36-58.
    3. Gonzalo Rubio, 1993. "Performance measurement of managed portfolios: a survey," Investigaciones Economicas, FundaciĆ³n SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 3-41, January.

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