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Rising Markups or Changing Technology?

Author

Listed:
  • Lucia S. Foster
  • John C. Haltiwanger
  • Cody Tuttle

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests the U.S. business environment is changing, with rising market concentration and markups. The most prominent and extensive evidence backs out firm-level markups from the first-order conditions for variable factors. The markup is identified as the ratio of the variable factor’s output elasticity to its cost share of revenue. Our analysis starts from this indirect approach, but we exploit a long panel of manufacturing establishments to permit output elasticities to vary to a much greater extent - relative to the existing literature - across establishments within the same industry over time. With our more detailed estimates of output elasticities, the measured increase in markups is substantially dampened, if not eliminated, for U.S. manufacturing. As supporting evidence, we relate differences in the markups’ patterns to observable changes in technology (e.g., computer investment per worker, capital intensity, diversification to non-manufacturing) and find patterns in support of changing technology as the driver of those differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia S. Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & Cody Tuttle, 2022. "Rising Markups or Changing Technology?," NBER Working Papers 30491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30491
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    Cited by:

    1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2025. "On automation, labor reallocation and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Ziran Ding & Jose Garcia‐Louzao & Valentin Jouvanceau, 2025. "The dynamics of product and labour market power: Evidence from Lithuania," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 165-194, January.
    3. Diane Coyle & John McHale & Ioannis Bournakis & Jen-Chung Mei, 2023. "Recent Trends in Firm-Level Total Factor Productivity in the United Kingdom: New Measures, New Puzzles," Working Papers 036, The Productivity Institute.
    4. Miller, Nathan H., 2025. "Industrial organization and The Rise of Market Power," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2024. "Digital transition, data-and-tasks crowd-based economy, and the shared social progress: Unveiling a new political economy from a European perspective," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Xiang Ding & Teresa C. Fort & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2019. "Structural Change Within Versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 2019-9, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    7. Christian Reiner & Christian Bellak, 2023. "Hat die ökonomische Macht von Unternehmen in Österreich zugenommen? Teil 1," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 49(1), pages 21-59.
    8. Federico Huneeus & Yasutaka Koike-Mori & Antonio Martner, 2025. "The Anatomy of Aggregate Productivity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1050, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Tan, Eugene & Zeida, Teegawende H., 2024. "Consumer demand and credit supply as barriers to growth for Black-owned startups," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. G. Jacob Blackwood & Cindy Cunningham & Matthew Dey & Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John Haltiwanger & Rachel Nesbit & Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia & Jay Stewart & Cody Tuttle & Zoltan Wolf, 2023. "Opening the Black Box: Task and Skill Mix and Productivity Dispersion," NBER Chapters, in: Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, pages 323-360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Siying Ding & Ahmad Lashkaripour & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2024. "A Global Perspective on the Incidence of Monopoly Distortions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11211, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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