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The Impact of Biomedical Knowledge Accumulation on Mortality: A Bibliometric Analysis of Cancer Data

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  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

I examine the relationship across diseases between the long-run growth in the number of publications about a disease and the change in the age-adjusted mortality rate from the disease. The diseases analyzed are almost all the different forms of cancer, i.e. cancer at different sites in the body (lung, colon, breast, etc.). Time-series data on the number of publications pertaining to each cancer site were obtained from PubMed. For articles published since 1975, it is possible to distinguish between publications indicating and not indicating any research funding support. My estimates indicate that mortality rates: (1) are unrelated to the (current or lagged) stock of publications that had not received research funding; (2) are only weakly inversely related to the contemporaneous stock of published articles that received research funding; and (3) are strongly inversely related to the stock of articles that had received research funding and been published 5 and 10 years earlier. The effect after 10 years is 66% larger than the contemporaneous effect. The strong inverse correlation between mortality growth and growth in the lagged number of publications that were supported by research funding is not driven by a small number of outliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2013. "The Impact of Biomedical Knowledge Accumulation on Mortality: A Bibliometric Analysis of Cancer Data," NBER Working Papers 19593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19593
    Note: AG DAE EFG EH PE PR
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    2. Frank Lichtenberg, 2011. "The quality of medical care, behavioral risk factors, and longevity growth," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-34, March.
    3. Evenson, Robert E & Kislev, Yoav, 1973. "Research and Productivity in Wheat and Maize," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1309-1329, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroki INOUE & Hiromi SAITO & Shigeru SUGIHARA & Shigeru HIROTA & Taisuke KAMEDA, 2017. "Agglomeration and Networking in Academic Research," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 194, pages 93-124, May.
    2. repec:plo:pone00:0174538 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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