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The Balance of Payments Adjustment Mechanism in a Rational Expectations Equilibrium

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  • Richard H. Clarida

Abstract

This paper provides a choice theoretic, general equilibrium account of the balance of payments adjustment process and the determination of national price levels in a world comprised of countries populated by rational households. Balance of payments adjustment dynaniics arise in the equilibrium of this model from the precautionary saving behavior of risk- averse households who self-insure against random productivity fluctuations by accumulating, via balance of payments surpluses in productive periods, buffer stocks of domestic money which can be drawn down to finance payments deficits, and thus a less variable profile of consumption relative to output, when productivity is unexpectedly low. Precautionary saving is shown to exhibit the partial-adjustment-to-target behavior typically postulated in the monetary approach literature. The existence of a rational expectations equilibrium in which the distribution of international reserves among central banks is stationary is established.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Clarida, 1986. "The Balance of Payments Adjustment Mechanism in a Rational Expectations Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 1945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1945
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    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1973. "Devaluation, Money, and Nontraded Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 871-880, December.
    2. Duncan K. Foley & Martin F. Hellwig, 1975. "Asset Management with Trading Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(3), pages 327-346.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-220, April.
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    1. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    2. Peter Englund & Anders Vredin, 1990. "The current account, supply shocks and accommodative fiscal policy : interpretations of Swedish post-war data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 89-107, Autumn.

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