IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1379.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Reaction of Reduced-Form Coefficients to Regime Changes: The Case of Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Joe Peek
  • James A. Wilcox

Abstract

This study investigates whether the apparent intertemporal instability of a particular reduced-form equation (that for interest rates) can be explained by changing government policy parameters, or regimes, and otherwise stable structural parameters. We hypothesize that major fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy parameter shifts have been important sources of that instability. Direct tests imply that reduced-form coefficients move by statistically significant and economically meaningful amounts in response to policy parameter change. Allowing for this systematic parameter variation produces greater stability in the remaining parameters. Furthermore, in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts from the proposed model out perform those from the non-responsive parameter specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1984. "The Reaction of Reduced-Form Coefficients to Regime Changes: The Case of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1379
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1379.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
    2. Cargill, Thomas F, 1976. "Anticipated Price Changes and Nominal Interest Rates in the 1950's," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(3), pages 364-367, August.
    3. Peek, Joe, 1982. "Interest Rates, Income Taxes, and Anticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 980-991, December.
    4. Carr, Jack L & Pesando, James E & Smith, Lawrence B, 1976. "Tax Effects, Price Expectations and the Nominal Rate of Interest," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(2), pages 259-269, June.
    5. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1978. "Anticipated Inflation and Interest Rates: Further Interpretation of Findings on the Fisher Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 801-812, December.
    6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    7. Carlson, John A, 1979. "Expected Inflation and Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(4), pages 597-608, October.
    8. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
    9. Tanzi, Vito, 1980. "Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 12-21, March.
    10. Slovin, Myron B. & Sushka, Marie Elizabeth, 1983. "Money, interest rates, and risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 475-482, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.