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International Capital Flows under Full Monetary Equilibrium: An Empirical Analysis

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  • John H. Makin

Abstract

This paper develops a theory of international capital flows based upon a monetary-equilibrium, rational-expectation theory of exchanged rate determination extended to include the official intervention and possible sterilization of its effects upon the monetary base that are part of the post-1973 system of limited flexibility of exchange rates. Capital flows are shown to depend only on the current expectation of a future relative excess money supplies once all arbitrage conditions are imposed along with rationality. Empirical testing reveals that U.S. international capital flows respond with persistent, damped oscillations to growth of relative excess money. This phenomenon is a quantity adjustment corollary of '"overshooting" of exchange rates in response to changes in relative excess money supply. Inclusion of a relative interest rate term along with measures of growth of relative excess money supply results in rejection of the hypothesis that such a variable provides any additional explanatory power regarding behavior of U.S. international capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Makin, 1981. "International Capital Flows under Full Monetary Equilibrium: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0648
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    1. John F. O. Bilson, 1979. "Recent Developments in Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination (Evolution récente des modèles monétaires de détermination des taux de change) (Progreso reciente en el campo de los modelos m," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, June.
    2. Caves, Douglas W & Feige, Edgar L, 1980. "Efficient Foreign Exchange Markets and the Monetary Approach to Exchange-Rate Determination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 120-134, March.
    3. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-467, May/June.
    4. Branson, William H & Hill, Raymond D, Jr, 1971. "Capital Movements Among Major OECD Countries: Some Preliminary Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 269-286, May.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Dean Taylor, 1980. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market or, Bet Against the Central Bank," UCLA Economics Working Papers 185, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    1. John H. Makin, 1981. "Exchange Rate Behavior under Full Monetary Equilibrium: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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