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Predetermined and Non-Predetermined Variables in Rational Expectations Models


  • Willem H. Buiter


The distinctiof between predetermined and non-predetermined variables is a crucial one in rational expectations models. I consider and reject two definitions, one proposed by Blanchard and Kahn and one by Chow. Both definitions lead to possible misc1assifications. Instead I propose the following defin)tion. A variable is non-`redetermined if and only if its current value is a function of current anticipations mf future values of endogenous and/or exogenous variables. This definition focuses on the essential economic property of non-predetermined variables: unlike predetermined variables they can respond instantaneously to changes in expectations due to "news." The new definition also fits the structure of rational expectations models solution algorithms such as the one proposed by Blanchard and Kahn.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem H. Buiter, 1983. "Predetermined and Non-Predetermined Variables in Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0021 Note: ITI IFM

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "The nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 105-110, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zadrozny, Peter A., 1998. "An eigenvalue method of undetermined coefficients for solving linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1353-1373, August.
    2. Marini, G. & Scaramozzino, P., 1989. "Monopolistic competition, expected inflation and contract length," Discussion Paper 1989-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2012. "Is it Possible to Go Back to Ad Hoc Macroeconomic Models? The Case of the Romer-Taylor Model," Working Papers 0312, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.
    5. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2012. "Indeterminacy in a dynamic small open economy with international migration," MPRA Paper 40013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rodríguez-Arana, Alejandro, 2014. "Política fiscal, expectativas y transición dinámica en el modelo simple de crecimiento endógeno," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(18), pages 7-32, primer se.
    7. Kim, Young Chul, 2009. "Lifetime Network Externality and the Dynamics of Group Inequality," MPRA Paper 18767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Loisel, Olivier, 2009. "Bubble-free policy feedback rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1521-1559, July.

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