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Employment effects of vaccine mandate defiance

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Abstract

We estimate employment effects of Covid-19 vaccine mandates on workers in the New Zealand education and health sectors. Unvaccinated workers are classified based on whether they comply with or defy the mandate. We identify substantial heterogeneity in outcomes across these two groups, using already-vaccinated workers as the control group in a difference-indifference regression framework. Mandate defiers experience 'permanent' labour market scarring with higher non-employment, lower wages conditional on employment, and increased mobility within New Zealand, consistent with moving to work opportunities. These effects weaken over time but persist for at least two and a half years.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Fabling, 2026. "Employment effects of vaccine mandate defiance," Motu Working Papers 26_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:26_04
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    1. Richard Fabling, 2026. "Uneven vaccine uptake across industries," Motu Working Papers 26_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Maré, David C. & Fabling, Richard & Hyslop, Dean R., 2023. "Job Displacement and Local Employment Density," IZA Discussion Papers 16685, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Fabling, Richard & Mare, David C, 2015. "Addressing the absence of hours information in linked employer-employee data," Motu Working Papers 290583, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    4. Richard Fabling & David C. Maré, 2020. "Measuring commute patterns over time: Using administrative data to identify where employees live and work," Motu Working Papers 20_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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