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Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Glöckner

    (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)

  • Tilmann Betsch

    (University of Erfurt)

  • Nicola Schindler

    (University of Erfurt)

Abstract

The fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to probabilistic inference assumes that individuals often employ simple heuristics to integrate cue information that commonly function in a non-reciprocal fashion. Specifically, the subjective validity of a certain cue remains stable during the application of a heuristic and is not changed by the presence or absence of another cue. The parallel-constraint-satisfaction model, in contrast, predicts that information is processed in a reciprocal fashion. Specifically, it assumes that subjective cue validities interactively af-fect each other and are modified to coherently support the favored choice. Corresponding to the model’s simulation, we predicted the direction of such coherence shifts.Cue validities were measured before, after (Exp. 1) and during judgment (Exp. 2 & 3). Coherence shifts were found in environments involving real-world cue knowledge (weather forecasts) and in a domain for which the application of fast-and-frugal heuristics has been demonstrated (city-size tasks). The results indicate that subjective cue validities are not fixed parameters, but that they are interactively changed to form coherent representations of the task.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Glöckner & Tilmann Betsch & Nicola Schindler, 2008. "Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_14, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2008_14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:215-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Betsch, Tilmann & Haberstroh, Susanne & Glockner, Andreas & Haar, Thomas & Fiedler, Klaus, 2001. "The Effects of Routine Strength on Adaptation and Information Search in Recurrent Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 23-53, January.
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    4. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
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    Keywords

    Judgment; Connectionism; Parallel Constraint Satisfaction; Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics; Adaptive Decision Making; Bounded Rationality;
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