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A VAR Model of Monetary Policy and Hypothetical Case of Inflation Targeting in India

Author

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  • Ankita Mishra
  • Vinod Mishra

Abstract

The empirical VAR literature on identification and measurement of the impact of monetary policy shocks on the real side of the economy is fairly comprehensive for developed economies but very limited for emerging and transition economies. In this study, we propose an identification scheme, for a developing economy taking India as a case study, which is able to capture the monetary transmission mechanism without giving rise to any empirical anomalies. We use a VAR approach with recursive contemporaneous restrictions and identify monetary policy shocks by modelling the reaction function of the central bank and structure of the economy. The effect of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables is consistent with the predictions of a broad set of theoretical models. This set-up is used to build a hypothetical case of inflation targeting where the monetary policy instrument is set after looking at the current values of inflation only. This is in contrast with the „multiple indicator approach‟ currently followed by Reserve Bank of India. This hypothetical scenario of inflation targeting suggests a sharper response of the interest rate (monetary policy instrument) to shocks and strengthening of the exchange rate channel in transmission of interest rate impulses. This study also provides some useful implications on the type of theoretical framework which can be used to model the evolution of monetary policy for a developing economy like India.

Suggested Citation

  • Ankita Mishra & Vinod Mishra, 2010. "A VAR Model of Monetary Policy and Hypothetical Case of Inflation Targeting in India," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2010-15
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2010/1510monetarymishramishra.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ1:2017-03-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016. "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 57-86, June.
    3. repec:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:4:p:66-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2014. "Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41-64, January.
    5. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2013. "Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Sri Lanka," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-13, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    6. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:206-219 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mishra, Ankita & Mishra, Vinod, 2012. "Evaluating inflation targeting as a monetary policy objective for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1053-1063.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    India; Inflation Targeting; Monetary policy; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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