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Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Tunisia: Micro-simulation in a General Equilibrium Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui
  • Chokri Thabet

Abstract

The study tries to answer the following questions: Will exposure to world agricultural prices generate more poverty or less? To what extent will households be affected by changes in agricultural trade polices? Do multilateral agricultural liberalization matter more than bilateral changes? Results of simulations using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked to household survey data suggest that trade liberalization has only modest effects on the level of GDP, but it has a substantial effect in reducing poverty. Moreover, the combined effects of global and domestic liberalization are more pro-poor thant the effect of domestic liberalization alone. As a net importer of agricultural commodities, Tunisia may be expected to experience terms-of-trade losses from higher world agricultural prices. However, given Tunisia's significant agricultural import protection policies, it is expected that the agricultural sector will lose from trade liberalization that removes this protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui & Chokri Thabet, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Tunisia: Micro-simulation in a General Equilibrium Framework," Working Papers MPIA 2008-03, PEP-MPIA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2008-03
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    File URL: https://portal.pep-net.org/documents/download/id/11938
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucke, Bernd & Zotti, Jacopo, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of the Barcelona Initiative," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 837-854.
    2. Rana HENDY & Chahir ZAKI, 2009. "Rethinking the Redistribution Effects of Trade Liberalization in Egypt : A Microsimulation Analysis," Working Papers 2009-23, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    3. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Mark van Zijll de Jong, 2012. "Linking a Microsimulation Model to a Dynamic CGE Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(2), pages 40-58.
    5. Nicolas Hérault, 2010. "Sequential linking of Computable General Equilibrium and microsimulation models: a comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 35-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tunisia; agriculture; trade liberalization; general equilibrium model; micro-simulation; poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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