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(Un)anticipated Technological Change in an Endogenous Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce A. Conway

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper examines numerically the impact of a negative exogenous shock to marginal productivity (such as ecological government regulation that becomes effective at some point in time) in an endogenous finite-time growth model with sluggish reallocation of human capital. The policy can be anticipated or unanticipated by firms, and it can also be announced but not implemented. It turns out that these frictions have a very strong long-run effect on output, consumption and on the optimal allocation of capital and labor in particular. The qualitative properties relate to homogenous labor models with positive productivity shocks. The problem is thus to maximize a function of a continuous system, where the system is subject to frictions and stepwise changes; for such a problem the application of calculus of variations necessary conditions is problematic. A numerical optimization method, which has had much success on qualitatively similar problems in engineering, has been employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce A. Conway & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2004. "(Un)anticipated Technological Change in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers 04-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0408
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. anonymous, 1995. "Does the bouncing ball lead to economic growth?," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-2,4-6.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Heer, Burkhard, 2003. "Welfare costs of inflation in a dynamic economy with search unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 255-272, November.
    4. Edmund S. Phelps, 1999. "Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 63-68, May.
    5. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    6. Teresa Beckham Gramm, 2005. "Costly Factor Reallocation and Reduced Productivity Effects in International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 822-839, September.
    7. Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 2000. "Technological Change, the Labor Market and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    two-sector endogenous growth model; unanticipated and anticipated technological change; frictions in reallocation of human capital; Runge-Kutta parallel shooting algorithm;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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