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The Problem Of Estimating Causal Relations By Regressing Accounting (Semi) Identities

  • F. Javier Sánchez Vidal

    ()

    (Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena)

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    Inferences about the coefficient values of a model estimated with a linear regression cannot be made when both the dependent and the independent variable are part of an accounting (semi) identity. The coefficients will no longer indicate a causal relation as they must adapt to satisfy the identity. A good example is an investment-cash flow sensitivity model. Este trabajo habla de la imposibilidad de extraer conclusiones sobre el valor de los coeficientes de un modelo de regresión lineal que intenta estimar una relación causal, cuando tanto la variable dependiente como la variable independiente forman parte de una (semi) identidad contable. Los coeficientes no sirven para explicar la relación causal, ya que su valor se adaptará para cumplir la identidad. Como ejemplo ilustrativo se presenta el modelo de la sensibilidad de la inversión al cash-flow.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2007-06.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2007
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    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2007-06.

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    Length: 11 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2007
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2007-06
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    1. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Are Useful: A Comment On Kaplan And Zingales," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(2), pages 695-705, May.
    2. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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