The effects and financial impacts of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic power production in Alberta, Canada

As reliance on solar photovoltaic (PV) generation grows, particularly in Alberta, accounting for the impact of wildfire smoke on solar energy production is crucial. This is particularly relevant in regions with high PV generation potential, such as Alberta, as they are often more vulnerable to frequent and intense wildfires. This study quantifies PV energy losses and financial impacts due to wildfire smoke in Alberta, using fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) as a proxy for smoke pollution. Historical weather and PM2.5 data, along with simulated PV production from actual completed, proposed, and under-construction projects, are used to train and test the model. The simulated data is validated against real production data. The six-year study (2018–2023) covers major wildfire years and employs machine learning techniques, particularly random forest regression, to isolate the effects of PM2.5 on solar production. Financial losses are estimated in Canadian dollars, adjusted for inflation to December 2023. Results show a PV production decline of up to 6.3% at a single solar site over six years, with an overall average reduction of 3.91% under severe conditions. The cumulative impact led to a 0.19% average generation loss, equating to over $4.5 million in financial losses. Higher smoke levels consistently correlate with greater solar energy losses, aligning with findings from other regions. The results of this study enhance our understanding of climate change impacts on solar energy, highlighting wildfire smoke as a relevant factor. As PV adoption expands, these findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers and operational planners, emphasizing the need for strategies to mitigate smoke-related disruptions and ensure energy reliability.