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The Effects of Income and Fare Variation on the Demand for Bus Transit Services in Brazil

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  • Carlos Henrique Ribeiro de Carvalho
  • Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira

Abstract

The public policies on mass transit and other economic policies have been unable to avoid increasing mass transit costs and urban bus fares, which places a burden on a majority of the population depending on public transit. This study analyzes the variations in urban bus fares and households income, as well as their effects on the demand of paying commuters in 9 large Brazilian cities between 1995 and 2008. The study shows that a gap between the rise of urban bus fares and the population`s income led to a decrease of more than 30% of the paying demand between 1995 and 2003. According to the price elasticity estimated in this study, the demand for bus services has exhibited elastic behavior since 2001. Since then, the gradual increase observed in population income seems to buffer against the persistent fare increases. The recovery of the average household per capita income since then seems to support a reversal of downward trends in the number of paying passengers and an increase access to public bus services. The number of paying passengers increased about 9.5% between 2003 and 2008.The evolution of the sector`s main costs complement the study, permitting an analysis of the many factors that have caused the continuous increases of bus fares in metropolitan Brazil during this period. The study concludes highlighting some public policies that could provide a better economic environment for the provision of efficient and affordable transit services. Este estudo analisa as variações nas tarifas de ônibus urbanos e na renda das famílias entre 1995 e 2008, avaliando seus efeitos sobre a demanda de passageiros pagantes nas nove maiores cidades brasileiras. Observou-se que o aumento dos preços de alguns dos principais itens que compõem a estrutura de custos do setor contribuiu para um aumento das tarifas em cerca de 60% acima da inflação medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor (INPC). Ao longo desse período, o aumento no preço das tarifas foi absorvido com diferentes intensidades pela demanda de passageiros pagantes, podendo-se destacar dois períodos: o primeiro, quando houve aumento das tarifas acompanhado por uma depreciação da renda das famílias, entre 1995 e 2003, culminando com a queda de mais de 30% da demanda de transporte público urbano (TPU); e o segundo, ocorrido desde meados de 2003, quando o aumento dos custos permaneceu, mas houve certo amortecimento dos seus efeitos sobre a demanda devido ao crescimento da renda da população. Isso refletiu na estabilização da demanda do TPU e, mais recentemente, na inversão da tendência de queda observada anteriormente. O estudo busca reacender o debate sobre políticas de melhoria e redução dos custos do transporte público de forma a aproveitar o atual contexto econômico do país em que se faz possível aproveitar as condições gerais da economia para dar uma trajetória mais sustentada à recuperação do transporte público.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Henrique Ribeiro de Carvalho & Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira, 2011. "The Effects of Income and Fare Variation on the Demand for Bus Transit Services in Brazil," Discussion Papers 1595, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1595
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cropper, Maureen & Bhattacharya, Soma, 2007. "Public transport subsidies and affordability in Mumbai, India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4395, The World Bank.
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