IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/1086.html

Do Ranking das Distribuidoras ao risco de Crédito no Pool- A remuneração dos Investimentos em Geração Elétrica no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Katia Rocha
  • Francisco A. Alcaraz Garcia

Abstract

The new Brazilian Electric Sector Regulation issued in 2004 introduced twonegotiation markets for the energy supply: the regulated pool (ACR) and the freemarket (ACL). Competition is enforced via energy auctions, where the winninggenerator has to sign long-term power purchase agreements (PPA) simultaneouslywith all distributors at the bidding-price. In order to estimate the appropriate creditrisk spread of the pool, we implement a clustering methodology to rank and rate thedistributors. The results show an average spread between 5.75% and 8.5% for thepool, which corresponds to a credit rating of B? (two levels below the Braziliancountry risk). This estimation is at least 208 basis points higher than the credit ratingBa1/BB+ assigned to the distributors by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel)in the periodic tariff revisions, which implies an underpricing of risk. On average,distributors with higher risk/spread are located in the South-Southeast region,compared to the low risk/spread ones that are concentrated in the North-Northeast.This behavior is kept during the period of study (2001-2004). Due to the risksharing mechanism of the pool, a generator that used to trade just in the North-Northeast market is now bearing a risk 480 basis points higher.We estimate the opportunity cost of capital in real terms in the range 13%-16% toaccount for the credit risk of the pool. Essential to determine the bidding price at theauctions, this estimation is considerably higher than the 11.26% opportunity costestimated by Aneel in the 2003-2004 periodic revisions. Since efficient marketsshould correctly price the risks and returns, the pool?s credit risk has to be taken intoconsideration, especially for compensating private capital investments in Brazilianpower generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Katia Rocha & Francisco A. Alcaraz Garcia, 2005. "Do Ranking das Distribuidoras ao risco de Crédito no Pool- A remuneração dos Investimentos em Geração Elétrica no Brasil," Discussion Papers 1086, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1086.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    2. Edward I Altman & Tara K N Baidya & Luis Manoel Ribeiro Dias, 1979. "Assessing Potential Financial Problems for Firms in Brazil," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 10(2), pages 9-24, June.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandra Horobet & Stefania Cristina Curea & Alexandra Smedoiu Popoviciu & Cosmin-Alin Botoroga & Lucian Belascu & Dan Gabriel Dumitrescu, 2021. "Solvency Risk and Corporate Performance: A Case Study on European Retailers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-34, November.
    2. Leonardo Becchetti & Annalisa Castelli & Iftekhar Hasan, 2010. "Investment–cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 467-497, November.
    3. Erdely, Arturo, 2017. "Value at Risk and the Diversification Dogma || Valor en riesgo y el dogma de la diversificación," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 209-219, Diciembre.
    4. repec:ath:journl:tome:34:v:2:y:2014:i:34:p:99-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castelli, Annalisa & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2008. "Investment-cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland.
    6. André Luiz de Souza Guimarães & Valcemiro Nossa, 2010. "Working capital, profitability, liquidity and solvency of healthcare insurance companies," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 7(2), pages 37-59, May.
    7. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castelli, Annalisa & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2008. "Investment-cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints," Research Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland.
    8. Becchetti, Leonardo & Sierra, Jaime, 2003. "Bankruptcy risk and productive efficiency in manufacturing firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2099-2120, November.
    9. Rocha, Katia & Alcaraz Garcia, Francisco A., 2006. "Credit risk in the pool--implications for private capital investments in Brazilian power generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3827-3835, December.
    10. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    11. Tomasz Korol, 2020. "Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1113-1135.
    12. Caro, Norma Patricia & Arias, Ver—nica & Ortiz, Pablo, 2017. "Predicci—n de fracaso en empresas latinoamericanas utilizando el mŽtodo del vecino más cercano para predecir efectos aleatorios en modelos mixtos || Prediction of Failure in Latin-American Companies Using the Nearest-Neighbor Method to Predict Random," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 5-24, Diciembre.
    13. K.K. Jain & P.K. Gupta & Sanjiv Mittal, 2011. "Logistic Predictive Model for SMEs Financing in India," Vision, , vol. 15(4), pages 331-346, December.
    14. Shaikh, Ibrahim A. & O'Brien, Jonathan Paul & Peters, Lois, 2018. "Inside directors and the underinvestment of financial slack towards R&D-intensity in high-technology firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 192-201.
    15. José-Luis Peydró [AP BACKUP – NOW EXTERNAL] & Mikel Bedayo & Raquel Vegas & Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró, 2020. "Screening and Loan Origination Time: Lending Standards, Loan Defaults and Bank Failures," Working Papers 1215, Barcelona School of Economics.
    16. Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2013. "Forecasting credit ratings with the varying-coefficient model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    17. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Pavol Durana & Lucia Michalkova & Andrej Privara & Josef Marousek & Milos Tumpach, 2021. "Does the life cycle affect earnings management and bankruptcy?," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 425-461, June.
    20. Dinh, K. & Kleimeier, S., 2006. "Credit scoring for Vietnam's retail banking market : implementation and implications for transactional versus relationship lending," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    21. Elizaveta Danilova & Evgeny Rumyantsev & Ivan Shevchuk, 2018. "Review of the Bank of Russia – IMF Workshop 'Recent Developments in Macroprudential Stress Testing'," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 60-83, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabio Schiavinatto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.