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Makroprudenzielle Politik: Kurzfristig expansiv bleiben, mittelfristig straffen

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Ruben Tarne

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die zügige geld- und fiskalpolitische Reaktion auf die Covid-Krise hat nicht nur die Konjunktur, sondern auch die Finanzmarktstabilität positiv beeinflusst. Sie wurde von einer makroprudenziellen Lockerung begleitet. Die Vermögenspreise in Deutschland, die vor der Covid-19-Krise historische Höchststände erreichten, legten seither bei vielen Vermögenswerten weiter deutlich zu. Derzeitige Risiken für die Finanzmarktstabilität bestehen in Form von übermäßigen Marktvolumina bei Unternehmensanleihen schlechter Bonität, Liquiditätsrisiken bei Investmentfonds und der Gefahr einer Immobilienpreisblase. Für die Immobilienpreise liefert der statistische PSY-Test ein deutliches Warnsignal. Bei anhaltend dynamischer Marktentwicklung empfiehlt sich mittelfristig eine Aktivierung kreditnachfrageseitiger Instrumente wie des Loan-to-Value-Verhältnisses. Eine gezielte makroprudenzielle Straffung nach der Covid-Krise sollte von einer staatlichen Wohnungsbauinvestitionsoffensive begleitet werden. Letztlich liegt es primär in der Hand der Fiskalpolitik, durch vermehrte öffentliche Investitionen den Ausstieg aus der Niedrigzinspolitik zu ermöglichen und damit auch die gestiegenen Risiken für die Finanzstabilität zu verringern.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Ruben Tarne, 2020. "Makroprudenzielle Politik: Kurzfristig expansiv bleiben, mittelfristig straffen," IMK Report 162-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:162-2020
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hubertus Bardt & Sebastian Dullien & Michael Hüther & Katja Rietzler, 2019. "Für eine solide Finanzpolitik: Investitionen ermöglichen!," IMK Report 152-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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