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Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Goncalves
  • Mauro Rodrigues

Abstract

The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper, we provide evidence suggesting that the association between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries is very weak. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth if one does not exclude outliers. However, this positive association always vanishes after controling for the savings rate. Importantly, this applies for both a large panel of countries and for the emerging economies subsample.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Goncalves & Mauro Rodrigues, 2017. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?," IMF Working Papers 2017/283, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/283
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    Cited by:

    1. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2024. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency undervaluations," Working Papers hal-04568924, HAL.
    2. Phornchanok Cumperayot & Roy Kouwenberg, 2021. "Cheaper currencies and long‐term growth: The effect of exchange rate management and capital controls," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2738-2757, September.
    3. Jaromír Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2024. "Exchange rate misalignments, growth, and institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1705-1799, October.
    4. Claire Giordano, 2023. "Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1329-1384, September.
    5. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    6. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works applying integrated policy frameworks to South Africa," Working Papers 11016, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Affandi Ismail & Peter Nijkamp, 2023. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: a meta-analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(2), pages 287-318, June.
    8. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works a decisiontree approach to exchange rate policy," Working Papers 11009, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2025. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency misalignments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Abdul Jalil, 2021. "Exchange Rate Policy Must Seek Undervaluation!," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 85-91.
    11. Erten, Bilge & Metzger, Martina, 2019. "The real exchange rate, structural change, and female labor force participation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 296-312.
    12. Esteban Javier Leguizamón & Pablo Alfredo Gluzmann, 2019. "Tipo de cambio real y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de robustez," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4162, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    13. Kirsneh Alemu Kebede, 2024. "The Effect of Availability of Foreign Exchange and Devaluation of BIRR on the Performance of Companies in Ethiopia (Instance of Sample Company)," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 99-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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