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Normalization of Global Financial Conditions: The Implications for Brazil

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  • Mr. Troy D Matheson

Abstract

Global financial conditions are poised to tighten further as the global recovery proceeds. While monetary policy normalization should be a healthy global development as growth continues to recover in advanced economies, financial spillovers seen during the taper episode—which started with the announcement in May 2013 of possible tapering of U.S. asset purchases—hint at potential challenges for Brazil. The Fed’s communications related to normalization have improved significantly since the taper episode and, at present, a rise in Fed Funds rate in 2015 is widely anticipated by markets—arguably the most widely anticipated tightening of monetary policy in history. While Brazil could benefit from tighter global financial conditions associated with improved global prospects, bouts of heightened uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy cannot be ruled out. Thus, the correct diagnosis of the underlying reasons behind tighter global financial conditions remains crucially important for Brazil. Adverse spillovers can be mitigated by strengthening policy frameworks and fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2015. "Normalization of Global Financial Conditions: The Implications for Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2015/194, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matheson, Troy & Stavrev, Emil, 2014. "News and monetary shocks at a high frequency: A simple approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 282-286.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Alfaro Alfaro & Carlos A. Medel & Carola Moreno, 2017. "An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 32(2), pages 131-153, October.
    2. Kpughur Moses Tule & Osana Jackson Odonye & Udoma Johnson Afangideh & Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh & Elijah Abasifreke Paul Udoh & Augustine Ujunwa, 2019. "Assessing the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy normalization on Nigeria sovereign bond yield," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Carlos Góes & Herman Kamil & Phil De Imus & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Jeremy Zook, 2017. "Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2017/050, International Monetary Fund.

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