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A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Murray Petrie
  • Mr. Richard Hemming

Abstract

Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer-term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy. Fiscal vulnerability indicators are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray Petrie & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2000/052, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/052
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3489
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bachellerie, A. & Couillault, B., 2005. "Public debt sustainability and crises in emerging market countries: a presentation of the concepts and diagnostic tools," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 6, pages 63-80, June.
    2. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    4. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    5. World Bank, 2013. "Burundi Public Expenditure Review : Strengthening Fiscal Resilience to Promote Government Effectiveness [République du Burundi - Burundi Revue des Dépenses Publiques - Renforcer l’efficacité des po," World Bank Publications - Reports 21283, The World Bank Group.
    6. Samer Saab, 2005. "Is Lebanon’s Debt Sustainable? A Closer Look at Lebanon’s Debt Dynamics," Public Economics 0505006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Richard M. Bird, 2003. "Fiscal Flows, Fiscal Balance, and Fiscal Sustainability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0302, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    8. Miss Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 2011/100, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Manasan, Rosario G., 2003. "Analysis of the President's Budget for 2004: Looking for the Complete (Fiscal) Picture," Discussion Papers DP 2003-17, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.
    11. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Kalin Hristov & Martin Zaimov, 2003. "Shadowing the euro: Bulgaria’s monetary policy five years on," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 61-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2014. "Exploring the effects of financial and fiscal vulnerabilities on G7 economies: Evidence from SVAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-367.
    14. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 2005/226, International Monetary Fund.
    15. repec:wbk:wboper:16727 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "Empirical study on the determinants of fiscal vulnerability: evidence for the European Union," MPRA Paper 65063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ahmed Al‐Kawaz, 2005. "Forward‐looking approach for fiscal sustainability: a case of Egypt, Indonesia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 1-36, March.
    18. Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad & Li Keping & Mr. Raju J Singh & Mr. Thomas J Richardson, 2002. "Recentralization in China?," IMF Working Papers 2002/168, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Gergely Kicsák & Dávid Benkõ & Noémi Végh, 2020. "Interest Savings of the Hungarian Budget between 2013 and 2019 in Comparison with Other EU Countries," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(4), pages 5-26.
    20. Murray Petrie, 2003. "Promoting Fiscal Transparency the Complementary Roles of the Imf, Financial Markets and Civil Society," IMF Working Papers 2003/199, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan & Habib-Ur Rahman, 2021. "Analysis of Australia’s Fiscal Vulnerability to Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, June.
    22. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Ana-Cristina Nicolescu, 2012. "The Recent Dynamics of Public Debt in the European Union: A Matter of Fundamentals or the Result of a Failed Monetary Experiment?," FEP Working Papers 467, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; deficit; revenue; aggregate fiscal policy approach; fiscal policy objective;
    All these keywords.

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