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Structural and Cyclical Trends in Net Employment over US Business Cycles, 1949–2009: Implications for the Next Recovery and Beyond

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  • Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

This paper expands on the methodology of Groshen and Potter (2003) for studying cyclical and structural changes in the US economy and analyzes the net structural and cyclical employment trends in the US economy during the last 10 trough-to-trough business cycles from 1949 to the present. It illustrates that the US manufacturing sector and an increasing number of services sectors, including parts of the financial services sector, are experiencing structural employment declines. Structural employment gains in the US labor market are increasingly concentrated in the healthcare, education, food, and professional and technical services sectors and in the occupations related to these industries. The paper concludes that the improved operation of the US labor market during the 1990s has reversed itself in the 2000s, with negative long-term economic effects for the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 2009. "Structural and Cyclical Trends in Net Employment over US Business Cycles, 1949–2009: Implications for the Next Recovery and Beyond," Working Paper Series WP09-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp09-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jinzhu & Kannan, Prakash & Loungani, Prakash & Trehan, Bharat, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    2. Uluc Aysun & Raman Khaddaria, 2012. "Bankruptcy resolution capacity and regional economic fluctuations," Working Papers 2012-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    3. Aysun, Uluc & Bouvet, Florence & Hofler, Richard, 2014. "An alternative measure of structural unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 592-603.
    4. Mileva, Mariya, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in response to shifts in the beveridge curve," Kiel Working Papers 1823, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Reich, Michael, 2012. "Unemployment after the Great Recession: Why so High? What Can We Do?/El desempleo después de la Gran Recesión: ¿Por qué tan alto? ¿Qué podemos hacer?," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 11-28, Abril.
    6. Adam S. Posen, 2010. "The Central Banker's Case for Doing More," Policy Briefs PB10-24, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Aysun, Uluc, 2014. "Bankruptcy resolution capacity and economic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 387-399.
    8. William Beyers, 2011. "Service Employment and Unemployment in the Great Recession: Trends in OECD Countries," ERSA conference papers ersa10p258, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; structural change; unemployment duration; occupational/sectoral employment shifts; labor turnover; Okun’s Law relationship; Beveridge curves.;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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