IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Gamblers' Rationality in Parimutuel Soccer Betting

  • Hauser, Ursula

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Koenig, Ulrich

    (Department of Economics, University of Vienna)

  • Krylova, Elizaveta

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Registered author(s):

    A model for strategic behaviour in parimutuel gambles with unequal winning-probabilities is developed and applied to gambles based on soccer results. Assuming that the bookmakers' quotas reflect the true probability of each possible result of a soccer game, we are able to derive a formula for the expected payoff of a betting strategy (Tipp). Using recent (1996-99) data from the Austrian games Toto and Torwette we are able to calculate the optimal strategies for 90 Toto and Torwette rounds. It turns out that given the relatively high probability of a rollover, it is optimal to overbet favourite outcomes (as compared to the probability of their occurrence). Comparing optimal with actual gamblers' behaviour we find that overbetting is even more pronounced than predicted by the model. This means that gamblers bet too frequently on relatively probable results whereas less probable results are too infrequently chosen relatively to the optimal strategy.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2000
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 87.

    in new window

    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:87
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria
    Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
    Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Postal: Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Ursula HAUSER & Ulrich KÖNIG, 1999. "Parimutuel Lotteries: Gamblers' Behavior and the Demand for Tickets," Vienna Economics Papers vie9905, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    2. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-74, Spring.
    3. Hauser, U. & Konig, U,, 1999. "Parimutuel Lotteries: Gambler's Behavior and the Demand for Tickets," Papers 9905, Washington St. Louis - School of Business and Political Economy.
    4. Simon, Jonathan, 1998. "An Analysis of the Distribution of Combinations Chosen by UK National Lottery Players," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 243-76, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doris Szoncsitz)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.