IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/ifsewp/25-62.html

The role of dispersed information in maintaining low interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Bassetto

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Carlo Galli

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Jason Hall

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

When public debt is issued in domestic currency, any sudden confidence crisis in the repayment ability of the government need not trigger a default, since it can be accommodated by temporary monetary financing, converting default risk into inflation risk. When the default risk premium is determined by well-informed financial intermediaries while inflation arises from the choices of less-informed workers and producers, this conversion masks adverse news, at least temporarily, and results in lower interest rates following adverse shocks. In this paper, we assess the importance of this channel, and the extent to which it is eroded when persistent fiscal shortfalls shift the prior held by all agents in the economy about the eventual resolution of the imbalance.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bassetto & Carlo Galli & Jason Hall, 2025. "The role of dispersed information in maintaining low interest rates," IFS Working Papers W25/62, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-12/WP202562-The-role-of-dispersed-information-in-maintaining-low-interest-rates.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2011. "Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9621, December.
    2. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
    3. Reis, Ricardo, 2021. "The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15624, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 18102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dispersed Information and Asset Prices," Working Papers hal-03118639, HAL.
    4. Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2021. "Information Aggregation and Asymmetric Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 15644, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Asymmetric Asset Payoffs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2715-2758, August.
    6. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Pricing Based on Heterogeneous Information," NBER Working Papers 17548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. R. Andergassen, 2003. "Rational destabilising speculation and the riding of bubbles," Working Papers 475, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Hao Xue, 2025. "Investors’ information acquisition and the manager’s value-risk tradeoff," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 776-812, March.
    9. Michael McAleer & Kim Radalj, 2013. "Herding, Information Cascades and Volatility Spillovers in Futures Markets," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 2, pages 307-329.
    10. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1194, CESifo.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    13. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Koga, Maiko & Sugo, Tomohiro, 2020. "Private information and analyst coverage: Evidence from firm survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 284-298.
    14. repec:esx:essedp:770 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Cukierman, Alex & Lustenberger, Thomas, 2017. "International evidence on professional interest rates forecasts: The impact of forecasting ability," CEPR Discussion Papers 12489, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
    17. Farrell, Michael & Murphy, Dermot & Painter, Marcus & Zhang, Guangli, 2023. "The complexity yield puzzle: A textual analysis of municipal bond disclosures," Working Papers 338, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    18. Cipriani Marco & Guarino Antonio, 2008. "Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, October.
    19. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    20. Gabriel Desgranges & Celine Rochon, 2008. "Conformism, Public News and Market Effciency," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe16, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    21. Helios Herrera, 2005. "Sorting in Risk-Aversion and Asset Price Volatility," Levine's Bibliography 172782000000000083, UCLA Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.