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Is China's Hog Rebuilding Complete? Reconciling Inventory and Price Data

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Abstract

The African swine fever outbreak that started in August 2018 wiped out 40% of China's sow inventory. China has been making substantial efforts, including subsidizing large hog producers and encouraging industrialization and modernization of hog production, to rebuild and expand its pork production. While China's governmental inventory data as of December 2020 show sow and hog inventory were 92.1% and 93.1% of their respective 2017 levels, recent record-high piglet, sow, hog, and pork prices suggest a large persistent supply shortage. China's record pork and live swine imports in 2020 suggest that China's hog rebuilding might be fast but of low genetic quality. Specifically, it seems likely that the retention of low-quality commercial generation gilts helped rebuild the herd but set back the national breeding system by abandoning purebred grandparents and parent generation propagation.

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  • Xi He & Dermot J. Hayes & Wendong Zhang, 2021. "Is China's Hog Rebuilding Complete? Reconciling Inventory and Price Data," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2021-2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:apr-winter-2021-2
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    1. Xiong, Tao & Zhang, Wendong & Chen, Chen-Ti, 2021. "A Fortune from misfortune: Evidence from hog firms’ stock price responses to China’s African Swine Fever outbreaks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Chad Hart & Lee L. Schulz, 2021. "USDA Outlook for 2021 Shows Healthy Recovery," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2021-5, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Xi He & Dermot J. Hayes & Wendong Zhang, 2021. "China's Agricultural Imports under the Phase One Deal: Is Success Possible?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 20-pb29, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen-Ti Chen & John M. Crespi & Yongjie Ji, 2021. "The United States' Competitive Positions in Beef, Corn, Pork, Soy, and Wheat Exports: 1980-2019," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2021-3, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Yulong Chen & Liyuan Ma & Peter F. Orazem, 2021. "Minimum Wages and Rural and Urban Firm Entry and Exit," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2021-4, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Chad Hart & Lee L. Schulz, 2021. "USDA Outlook for 2021 Shows Healthy Recovery," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2021-5, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    4. GianCarlo Moschini & Yongjie Ji & Seungki Lee, 2021. "Corn Yields and Climate Change: The Innovation Challenge," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2021-1, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

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