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The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles

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  • Ernst A. Boehm

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne and Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York)

Abstract

This paper reviews major features of the development of economic indicator analysis (EIA), notably its contribution to identifying, understanding, explaining and forecasting business cycles. The paper highlights the substantial pioneering role of Dr Geoffrey H. Moore in this development. The paper reviews some key issues regarding the selection and classification of economic indicators; and the methodologies developed to use these indicators to identify and measure business cycles on national, regional and sectoral bases. After making an overall assessment of EIA, acknowledgement is given to the widespread development and applications of EIA around the world to study the co-movements of key economic variables and to forshadow changes in them.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernst A. Boehm, 2001. "The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2001n17
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    File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/working_paper_series/wp2001n17.pdf
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    1. Auerbach, Alan J, 1982. "The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 589-595, November.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    3. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
    4. Andreou, Elena & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Comparison of the Statistical Properties of Financial Variables in the USA, UK and Germany over the Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 396-418, Special I.
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