The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles
This paper reviews major features of the development of economic indicator analysis (EIA), notably its contribution to identifying, understanding, explaining and forecasting business cycles. The paper highlights the substantial pioneering role of Dr Geoffrey H. Moore in this development. The paper reviews some key issues regarding the selection and classification of economic indicators; and the methodologies developed to use these indicators to identify and measure business cycles on national, regional and sectoral bases. After making an overall assessment of EIA, acknowledgement is given to the widespread development and applications of EIA around the world to study the co-movements of key economic variables and to forshadow changes in them.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992.
"International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Auerbach, Alan J, 1982. "The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 589-95, November.
- Andreou, Elena & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Comparison of the Statistical Properties of Financial Variables in the USA, UK and Germany over the Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 396-418, Special I.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2001n17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (James Davis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.