Terms-of-Trade Changes, Real GDP, and Real Value Added in the Open Economy: Reassessing Hong Kong's Growth Performance
Real GDP tends to underestimate the increase in real domestic value added, real GDI, and welfare when the terms of trade improve. An improvement in the terms of trade is similar to a technological progress. The national accounts treat the two phenomena very unevenly, however, with a change in the terms of trade considered to be a price event and thus not incorporated in the computation of real GDP. The impact of a change in the real exchange rate on real value added is not taken into account by real GDP either. Given its extreme openness and in view of the massive terms-of-trade improvements that it has enjoyed over the past forty years, Hong Kong makes for an interesting case study. Our findings suggest that average real growth has been underestimated by real GDP by approximated 0.4% per annum between 1961 and 2003. This adds up to a gap of close to 20% of GDP over the entire period.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert C. Feenstra & Alan Heston & Marcel P. Timmer & Haiyan Deng, 2004.
"Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables,"
NBER Working Papers
10866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Alan Heston & Marcel P. Timmer & Haiyan Deng, 2009. "Estimating Real Production and Expenditures across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 201-212, February.
- Feenstra, Robert C. & Heston, Alan & Timmer, Marcel P. & Deng, Haiyan, 2007. "Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-95, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
- Feenstra, Robert C. & Heston, Alan & Timmer, Marcel P. & Deng, Haiyan, 2007. "Estimating real production and expenditures across nations : a proposal for improving the Penn World Tables," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4166, The World Bank.
- Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
- Diewart, W Erwin & Morrison, Catherine J, 1986.
"Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(383), pages 659-79, September.
- W.E. Diewert & Catherine J. Morrison, 1985. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 1564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1973. "Transcendental Logarithmic Production Frontiers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(1), pages 28-45, February.
- Ulrich R. Kohli, 1978. "A Gross National Product Function and the Derived Demand for Imports and Supply of Exports," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-82, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:052006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.