The Increased Importance of Asset Price Misalignments for Business Cycle Dynamics
We outline a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with trend extrapolation in asset pricing that we fit to quarterly U.S. macroeconomic time series with Bayesian techniques. To be more precise, we modify the DSGE model in Smets and Wouters (2007) by incorporating asset traders who use a mix of fundamental analysis and trend extrapolation in asset pricing. We conclude that trend extrapolation in asset pricing is quantitatively relevant, statistically significant and results in a substantial improvement of the model’s fit to the data. We also find that the strength in trend extrapolation is much stronger during the Great Moderation than it was prior to this period. Moreover, allowing for asset mispricing leads to more pronounced hump-shaped dynamics of the asset price and investment. Thus, asset price misalignments should be an important ingredient in DSGE models that aim to understand business cycles dynamics in general and the interaction between the real and financial sectors in particular.
|Date of creation:||08 Jun 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden|
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- Ricardo Reis & Vasco Curdia, 2009.
"Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles,"
2009 Meeting Papers
129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Cúrdia, Vasco & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Correlated disturbances and U.S. business cycles," Staff Reports 434, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated". "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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