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Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment

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  • Pettersson-Lidbom, Per

    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)

Abstract

In this comment, I revisit the question raised in Karadja and Prawitz (2019) concerning a causal relationship between mass emigration and long-run political outcomes. I find that their analysis fails to recognize that their independent variable of interest, emigration, is severely underreported since approximately 30% of all Swedish emigrants are missing from their data. As a result, their instrumental variable estimator is inconsistent due to nonclassical measurement error. Another important problem is that their instrument is unlikely to be conditionally exogenous due to insufficient control for confounders correlated with their weather-based instrument. Indeed, they fail to properly account for non-linearities in the effect of weather shocks and to control for unobserved heterogeneity at the weather station level. Correcting for the any of these problems reveals that there is no relationship between emigration and political outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2020. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment," Research Papers in Economics 2020:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2020_0003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melvin Stephens & Takashi Unayama, 2019. "Estimating the Impacts of Program Benefits: Using Instrumental Variables with Underreported and Imputed Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 468-475, July.
    2. David Andersson & Mounir Karadja & Erik Prawitz, 2022. "Mass Migration and Technological Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1859-1896.
    3. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    4. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2020. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment," Research Papers in Economics 2020:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2020.
    5. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05c, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    6. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05b, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2020. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment," Research Papers in Economics 2020:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2020.
    2. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2022. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States. A Comment on Karadja and Prawitz (Journal of Political Economy, 2019)," Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2022-3), pages 1-13.
    3. Karadja, Mounir & Prawitz, Erik, 2020. "A response to Pettersson-Lidbom’s “Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States – a Comment”," Working Paper Series 2020:5, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    replication; emigration; non-classical measurement error; omitted variable bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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