Swedish Intervention and the Krona Float, 1993-2002
Using a set of standard success criteria, we show that Riksbank foreign-exchange interventions between 1993 and 2002 lacked forecast value; that is, the observed number of successes was not significantly greater—and usually substantially smaller—than the number one would anticipate given the martingale nature of exchange-rate movements. Under some success criteria, the Riksbank exhibited negative forecast value, implying that the market could have profited by taking a position opposite that of the bank. Moreover, the likelihood of success was independent of such conditioning factors as the amount of a transaction, the time lapses between interventions, or the number of foreign currencies involved. As such, Riksbank intervention could not operate through an expectations or signaling channel.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2002.
"ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the EURO: Institutional Framework, News, and Intervention,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 413-425, October.
- Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Euro: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Humpage, Owen F, 1999.
"U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
- Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success," Working Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 1998. "Intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 191-210, February.
- Aguilar, Javiera & Nydahl, Stefan, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rates: the case of Sweden," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 303-322, December.
- Dominguez & K., 1997.
"The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention,"
412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
- Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001.
"Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
- Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
- Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hesse, Thomas, 1993. "Central Bank Forex internvention assessed in continous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 368-389, August.
- repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
- Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, March.
- Humpage, Owen F., 2000. "The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 287-302, December.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
- Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December.
- Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.