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Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment: choice between fossil- and biofuels

Author

Listed:
  • Murto, Pauli

    (Helsinki University of Technology, Systems Analysis Laboratory)

  • Nese, Gjermund

    (Institute for Research in Economics and Business Administration (SNF))

Abstract

We consider energy investment, when a choice has to be made between fossil fuel and biomass fired production technologies. A dynamic model is presented to illustrate the effect of the different degrees of input price uncertainty on the choice of technology and the timing of the investment. It is shown that when the choice of technology is irreversible, it may be optimal to postpone the investment even if it would otherwise be optimal to invest in one or both of the plant types. We provide a numerical example based on cost estimates of two different power plant types.

Suggested Citation

  • Murto, Pauli & Nese, Gjermund, 2002. "Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment: choice between fossil- and biofuels," Working Papers in Economics 15/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:bergec:2002_015
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006. "Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
    2. Monjas-Barroso, Manuel & Balibrea-Iniesta, José, 2013. "Valuation of projects for power generation with renewable energy: A comparative study based on real regulatory options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 335-352.
    3. Roques, F.A. & Savva , N.S., 2006. "Price Cap Regulation and Investment Incentives under Demand Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0636, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Kostrova, Alisa & Britz, Wolfgang & Finger, Robert & Djanibekov, Utkur, 2016. "Real Options Approach And Stochastic Programming In Farm Level Analysis: The Case Of Short-Rotation Coppice Cultivation," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244864, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    5. Fabre, Adrien & Fodha, Mouez & Ricci, Francesco, 2020. "Mineral resources for renewable energy: Optimal timing of energy production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
    7. Barroso, Manuel Monjas & Iniesta, José Balibrea, 2014. "A valuation of wind power projects in Germany using real regulatory options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 422-433.
    8. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    irreversible investment; price uncertainty; biomass; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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