Biofuels and food security: Evidence from Indonesia and Mexico

We analyze food security effects of biofuel production by using the synthetic control method. This retrospective and graphical analysis focuses on Indonesia and Mexico from 2000 to 2013. Indonesia is a major biodiesel producer while Mexico is specialized in maize and ethanol. Our findings show that biodiesel production positively affects food security through the increase in daily per capita energy consumption and food production index, but we observe the reverse effect for bioethanol. After the adoption of biofuels, the gap between Indonesia and its counter-factual allows us to conclude that biodiesel production does not harm food security. This could be explained by the fact that biodiesel production uses some feedstocks which do not directly compete with food crops; moreover, biodiesel exports generate revenues which are allocated to food imports. However, the gap between Mexico and its counter-factual suggests that bioethanol production leads to a reduction in food security, this because it uses maize which is the staple food of many Mexicans. Furthermore, Mexican ethanol exports compete with that of the U.S. Our results are robust to several falsification tests.