IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01586655.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stopping Behaviors of Naïve and Non-Committed Sophisticated Agents when They Distort Probability
[Comportement d'arrêt des agents naïfs et sophistiqués sous distorsion des probabilités perçues]

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Jui Huang

    (University of Colorado - Department of Applied Mathematics - University of Colorado [Boulder])

  • Adrien Nguyen-Huu

    (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)

  • Xun Yu Zhou

    (Columbia University [New York])

Abstract

We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional involving probability distortion. The problem is inherently time-inconsistent as the level of distortion of a same event changes over time. We study stopping decisions of na¨ıvena¨ıve agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves' behaviors. When the state process is one dimensional and the payoff functional satisfies some regularity conditions, we prove that any equilibrium can be obtained as a fixed point of an operator. This operator represents strategic reasoning that takes the future selves' behaviors into account. In particular, we show how such strategic reasoning may turn a na¨ıvena¨ıve agent into a sophisticated one. Finally, when the diffusion process is a geometric Brownian motion we derive stopping strategies of these two types of agent for various parameter specifications of the problem, illustrating rich behaviors beyond the extreme ones such as " never-stopping " or " never-starting ".

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Jui Huang & Adrien Nguyen-Huu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2017. "Stopping Behaviors of Naïve and Non-Committed Sophisticated Agents when They Distort Probability [Comportement d'arrêt des agents naïfs et sophistiqués sous distorsion des probabilités perçues]," Working Papers hal-01586655, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01586655
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01586655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01586655/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Tomas Björk & Mariana Khapko & Agatha Murgoci, 2017. "On time-inconsistent stochastic control in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 331-360, April.
    3. Yu-Jui Huang & Adrien Nguyen-Huu, 2018. "Time-consistent stopping under decreasing impatience," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 69-95, January.
    4. Sebastian Ebert & Philipp Strack, 2015. "Until the Bitter End: On Prospect Theory in a Dynamic Context," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1618-1633, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Jui Huang & Zhou Zhou, 2017. "Optimal Equilibria for Time-Inconsistent Stopping Problems in Continuous Time," Papers 1712.07806, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu‐Jui Huang & Adrien Nguyen‐Huu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2020. "General stopping behaviors of naïve and noncommitted sophisticated agents, with application to probability distortion," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 310-340, January.
    2. Xue Dong He & Xun Yu Zhou, 2021. "Who Are I: Time Inconsistency and Intrapersonal Conflict and Reconciliation," Papers 2105.01829, arXiv.org.
    3. Yu-Jui Huang & Adrien Nguyen-Huu, 2018. "Time-consistent stopping under decreasing impatience," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 69-95, January.
    4. Xue Dong He & Sang Hu & Jan Obłój & Xun Yu Zhou, 2017. "Technical Note—Path-Dependent and Randomized Strategies in Barberis’ Casino Gambling Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 97-103, February.
    5. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Jonas Frey, 2020. "Optimal Stopping in a Dynamic Salience Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8496, CESifo.
    6. David Alan Peel & David Law, 2017. "Loss Aversion And Ruinous Optimal Wagers In Cumulative Prospect Theory," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 352-360.
    7. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    8. Yu‐Jui Huang & Zhou Zhou, 2020. "Optimal equilibria for time‐inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 1103-1134, July.
    9. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Mats Köster, 2020. "Salience and Skewness Preferences [Risk-neutral Firms can Extract Unbounded Profits from Consumers with Prospect Theory Preferences]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2057-2107.
    10. Duraj, Jetlir & He, Kevin, 0. "Dynamic information preference and communication with diminishing sensitivity over news," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    11. Alex Stomper & Marie‐Louise Vierø, 2022. "Iterated expectations under rank‐dependent expected utility and implications for common valuation methods," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 739-763, May.
    12. Yu-Jui Huang & Zhou Zhou, 2018. "Strong and Weak Equilibria for Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Control in Continuous Time," Papers 1809.09243, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    13. Erhan Bayraktar & Zhenhua Wang & Zhou Zhou, 2023. "Equilibria of time‐inconsistent stopping for one‐dimensional diffusion processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 797-841, July.
    14. Vicky Henderson & David Hobson & Matthew Zeng, 2023. "Cautious stochastic choice, optimal stopping and deliberate randomization," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 75(3), pages 887-922, April.
    15. Ebert, Sebastian & Hilpert, Christian, 2019. "Skewness preference and the popularity of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imax & Martin Weber, 2021. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 094, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    17. Henderson, Vicky & Hobson, David & Tse, Alex S.L., 2018. "Probability weighting, stop-loss and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 360-397.
    18. Chen, Zengjing & Epstein, Larry G. & Zhang, Guodong, 2023. "A central limit theorem, loss aversion and multi-armed bandits," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    19. Cristiana Cerqueira Leal & Gilberto Loureiro & Manuel J. Rocha Armada, 2018. "Selling winners, buying losers: Mental decision rules of individual investors on their holdings," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), pages 362-386, June.
    20. Arvanitis, Stelios & Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2020. "Spanning analysis of stock market anomalies under prospect stochastic dominance," Working Papers unige:134101, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01586655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.