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Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle : le cas de la France en 2000-2001

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  • Frédéric Gonand

    (CECO - Laboratoire d'économétrie de l'École polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A pro-cyclical keynesian fiscal policy neutralizing the impact of automatic stabilizers: the case of France in 2000-2001. This paper suggests a simple empirical method assessing the impact on growth of public finances in the short-run, namely a) the ex-ante fiscal impulse, b) its ex-post impact on growth and c) the ex-post overall impact on growth of public finances. Applying this method to the expansionary episode of the French fiscal policy in 2000-2001 yields two main results. The aggregate Keynesian multiplier for French public finances is most probably below 1 – which is in line with one of the implications of the neo-ricardian model. The effect on growth of the French pro-cyclical fiscal policy completely offset the impact of the automatic stabilizers during the latest cyclical peak. As a consequence, stimulating the economy during the following cyclical downswing became impossible because no margin of maneuver remained.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle : le cas de la France en 2000-2001," Working Papers hal-00243038, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00243038
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00243038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zakariae Belmkaddem & Driss Touijar, 2018. "Les déficits jumeaux : étude empirique sur le cas marocain (1980-2018)," Working Papers hal-01712961, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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