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Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle : le cas de la France en 2000-2001

  • Frédéric Gonand

    (CECO - Laboratoire d'econometrie de l'école polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7657 - Polytechnique - X)

Cette étude présente une méthode empirique simple permettant d'évaluer l'impact des finances publiques sur la croissance à court terme, et plus précisément : a) l'impulsion discrétionnaire des finances publiques avant bouclage macroéconomique ; b) l'impact sur la croissance de l'impulsion discrétionnaire après bouclage et c) l'impact sur la croissance de l'ensemble des finances publiques (stabilisateurs automatiques inclus) après bouclage. L'application de cette méthode à la politique budgétaire française durant la législature 1997-2002 suggère deux résultats : a) l'effet multiplicateur agrégé des finances publiques françaises est probablement inférieur à 1, ce qui tend à valider une des propositions théoriques du modèle d'équivalence néo-ricardienne ; b) la politique budgétaire française massivement pro-cyclique lors de la phase haute de cycle en 2000-2001 a complètement neutralisé l'effet modérateur des stabilisateurs automatiques. Elle a ainsi rendu impossibles tant un retour à l'équilibre des comptes publics en période faste que toute possibilité de relance ultérieure une fois le ralentissement cyclique avéré à la fin de l'année 2001.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00243038.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00243038
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00243038/en/
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  1. Garry J. Schinasi & Mark Scott Lutz, 1991. "Fiscal Impulse," IMF Working Papers 91/91, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  3. Boris Cournède & Frédéric Gonand, 2006. "Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Raise Taxes or Curb Spending?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 520, OECD Publishing.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Frédéric Gonand, 2005. "Effect on potential growth of non-sustainable public debt dynamics: an application to France," Working Papers hal-00242973, HAL.
  6. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1984. "Ricardian Consumers With Keynesian Propensities," NBER Working Papers 1400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  8. Sheetal K. Chand, 1992. "Fiscal Impulses and their Fiscal Impact," IMF Working Papers 92/38, International Monetary Fund.
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