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Estimating the Effect of Treatments Allocated by Randomized Waiting Lists

Author

Listed:
  • Clément Chaisemartin

    (UC Santa Barbara - University of California [Santa Barbara] - UC - University of California)

  • Luc Behaghel

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Oversubscribed treatments are often allocated using randomized waiting lists. Applicants are ranked randomly, and treatment offers are made following that ranking until all seats are filled. To estimate causal effects, researchers often compare applicants getting and not getting an offer. We show that those two groups are not statistically comparable. Therefore, the estimator arising from that comparison is inconsistent when the number of waitlists goes to infinity. We propose a new estimator, and show that it is consistent, provided the waitlists have at least two seats. Finally, we revisit an application, and we show that using our estimator can lead to a statistically significant difference with respect to the results obtained using the commonly used estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Chaisemartin & Luc Behaghel, 2020. "Estimating the Effect of Treatments Allocated by Randomized Waiting Lists," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02973595, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-02973595
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16032
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    Cited by:

    1. Clément de Chaisemartin & Luc Behaghel, 2020. "Estimating the Effect of Treatments Allocated by Randomized Waiting Lists," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1453-1477, July.
    2. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2025. "Design-based identification with formula instruments: a review," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 83-108.
    3. Blanchard, Pablo & Brum, Matias & Carrasco, Paula & Parada, Cecilia & Perazzo, Ivone, 2025. "Employment effects of a social and labour inclusion programme," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Pablo Blanchard & Matías Brum & Paula Carrasco & Cecilia Parada & Ivone Perazzo, 2023. "Employment effects of a social and labor inclusion program," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-02, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    5. Daniel Da Mata & Rodrigo Oliveira & Diana Silva, 2021. "Who benefits from job training programmes?: Evidence from a high-dosage programme in Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-121, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Da Mata, Daniel & Oliveira, Rodrigo & Silva, Diana, 2025. "Who benefits from job training programs? Evidence from a high-dosage program in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Ubfal, Diego & Araya, Federico, 2020. "The Effects of Working While in School: Evidence from Uruguayan Lotteries," IZA Discussion Papers 13929, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Sergiu Burlacu & Davide Azzolini & Federico Podestà, 2024. "Beyond Sight: Exploring the Impact of a Multifaceted Intervention on Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviors towards Persons with Visual Impairment," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2024-03, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    9. Joshua D. Angrist, 2022. "Empirical Strategies in Economics: Illuminating the Path From Cause to Effect," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2509-2539, November.
    10. Thomas Le Barbanchon & Diego Ubfal & Federico Araya, 2023. "The Effects of Working While in School: Evidence from Employment Lotteries," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 383-410, January.
    11. Clément de Chaisemartin, 2022. "Trading-off Bias and Variance in Stratified Experiments and in Staggered Adoption Designs, Under a Boundedness Condition on the Magnitude of the Treatment Effect," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03873919, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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