The role of China in the global capitalist economy: an unavoidable rise or a possible decline?

China's rise in the present global economy has been very fast by historical records. In three decades, China has shifted from a poor developing country to the status of global power progressively contesting US hegemony. Some commentators forecast that China could overtake the USA in the coming 20 to 30 years as the main centre of global economy before turning, at a later stage, into a military superpower. As always when one tries to forecast such complex events, there is high uncertainty regarding what could actually turn out. The present international crisis in the USA and Europe and its dampening effects on global demand is of course one important element of doubt. But the uncertainty concerning China's attempt to leap frog in technological innovations is another critical question. Finally, the social and political issues stemming from growing inequalities and the impossibility to express discontent, disagreement and proposals in a democratic political space creates another serious doubt about the possibility for the Chinese government to pilot China's rise without a profound political reform. Having in mind this radical uncertainty regarding the future, the objective of this chapter is to assess the present role and weight of China in the global capitalist economy and to present possible scenarios for its future evolution. We will address more specifically the following questions: What is the importance of China as a producer and consumer of goods and services in the world economy? Can China become a producer of technological innovations going past its present stage of importer and user of foreign technology? What are the main internal obstacles able to slow down or even impair China's rise?