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Evolution of EROIs of electricity until 2050: Estimation and implications on prices

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  • Adrien Fabre

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The EROI – for Energy Returned On Invested – of an energy technology measures its ability to provide energy efficiently. Previous studies draw a link between the affluence of a society and the EROI of its energy system, and show that EROIs of renewables are lower than those of fossil fuels. Logically, concerns have been expressed that system-wide EROI may decrease during a renewable energy transition. First, I explain theoretically that the EROIs of renewables themselves could then decrease as energy-efficient fossil fuels would be replaced by less energy-efficient renewables in the supply-chain. Then, using the multi-regional input-output model THEMIS, I estimate the evolution of EROIs and prices of electric technologies from 2010 to 2050 for different scenarios. Global EROI of electricity is predicted to go from 12 in 2010 to 11 in 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario, but down to 6 in a 100% renewable one. Finally, I study the economic implication of a declining EROI. An inverse relation between EROI and price is suggested empirically, even though theory shows that both quantities may move in the same direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien Fabre, 2019. "Evolution of EROIs of electricity until 2050: Estimation and implications on prices," Post-Print halshs-02306915, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02306915
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.06.006
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02306915
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Leonardo Rana & Mariarosaria Lombardi & Pasquale Giungato & Caterina Tricase, 2020. "Trends in Scientific Literature on Energy Return Ratio of Renewable Energy Sources for Supporting Policymakers," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Jessica Daaboul & Patrick Moriarty & Damon Honnery, 2023. "Green Energy Prospects of Electricity Generated from Short-Rotation Woody Crops—Quantifying the EROIg of Bioelectricity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Liu, Feng & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2020. "Differences in CO2 emissions of solar PV production among technologies and regions: Application to China, EU and USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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